Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q3 2019 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO
Kuroto Fund appreciated +1.3% for the year to date through September 30th and is up +1.0% for the year through October 31st. By comparison, the EM index was up +6.2% for the year to date through September 30th and was up +10.7% through October 31st.
Our flattish year-to-date performance belies the remarkable volatility of the underlying stocks we own (see scatter plot). As of the end of the third quarter, the average company in our portfolio (on an equal-weighted, absolute basis) had moved 16.8% since the start of the year.[1]
not since 2008
Kuroto Fund trades at 9.1x this year’s earnings and just 7.1x 2020 estimated earnings. Our fund has not traded this cheaply since December 2008, when the current year P/E ratio was 9.3x! Continued investor pessimism about emerging markets and the growing earnings of our companies has rapidly reduced the valuation of our portfolio. The resulting combination of valuation, growth, and quality makes now a particularly opportune moment to deploy capital, in our opinion.
the market’s year-to-date favorites
Amongst our positively performing companies this year, we have observed two clear themes: (a) high-growth companies in select, high-growth markets; and (b) defensive stocks in more developed countries such as South Korea and Poland. Businesses in the first category are attracting investors willing to pay for growth, while our businesses in the second category are attracting risk-averse capital still committed to emerging markets. As the scatter plot above makes clear, we’ve benefited from the meaningful ownership of a handful of such businesses this year.
FPT exemplifies a high-growth company in a high-growth economy, while Neuca exemplifies a stable business in a more developed market. The year-to-date share price performance of these two companies is eye-popping. Specifically, in U.S. dollar terms, the shares of these two companies are up 57% and 49% for the year through October 31st, respectively. The desirable growth characteristics of both FPT and its country of domicile, Vietnam, are obvious. Through nine months, FPT’s reported revenues grew 18% and Vietnam is on pace to generate real GDP growth of 6.5% this year.[2] Similarly, Neuca’s defensive characteristics are equally apparent to investors. This Polish pharma distributor grew its topline just 4.8% in the first half of this year while Polish real GDP grew 3.8%.[3] Despite this modest growth, both the company and the country are perceived to be defensive in the emerging markets context.
little tolerance for jurisdictional risk
The positive returns of FPT and Neuca contrast sharply with the share price performance of our companies domiciled in less-desirable jurisdictions. Our companies in Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, Georgia and Sri Lanka have suffered from risk aversion. Peru is struggling with an impeachment hangover, Ghana suffered from a banking crisis, Tanzania’s exchange now allows only limited price discovery in their equity markets, Georgia saw geopolitical tensions with Russia flare up, and Sri Lanka suffered a terrorist attack that killed dozens of people. The long-term economic fundamentals of these countries continue to be supportive of above-average growth, and the highly cash generative companies which we own in these jurisdictions are well positioned given their particular defensive characteristics. Nevertheless, these markets and our companies doing business therein have suffered steep share price declines this year almost regardless of their operating performance.
MTN Ghana’s share price performance typifies the returns of a superior company in a difficult jurisdiction this year. This dominant telecom and mobile money provider is down 17% for the year through October 31st despite impressive operating results and low valuation. As affirmed by its Q3 results, MTN Ghana’s core telecom business is growing over 20% and its valuable mobile-money business is growing over 40%. That these spectacular results are coupled with a single-digit earnings multiple is surprising. The net result is that the company’s shares are down 17% while the local stock market is down 23% in USD through October 31st.
zero tolerance for operational problems
Our companies that have experienced company-specific operational problems have performed horribly regardless of their valuation. Blue Label, a South African telecom distributor with an ill-fated investment in a local cellphone carrier, is down 50% for the year through October 31st. The company now trades at 3x 2019 earnings excluding the writedown in its cellphone subsidiary. UFO Moviez, an Indian media distribution business which suffered delays in achieving regulatory approval, is down 39% through October 31st. The company now trades at 6x 2019 earnings. And finally, Atento, a Brazilian outsourcing company that has struggled to grow revenues, is down 25% for the year. The company now trades at 6.5x our estimate of 2020 earnings. While we too are disappointed by these companies’ operating results, the market’s clear overreaction to such disappointments is creating real opportunities for better-business value investors like ourselves.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
END NOTES
[1] Performance stated for Kuroto Fund, L.P. Class A on a net basis. An investor’s performance may differ based on timing of contributions, withdrawals, share class, and participation in new issues. Unless otherwise noted, all company-specific data is derived from internal analysis, company presentations, or Bloomberg. Company valuations and exposures are as of 9.30.19.
[2] Source: IMF estimates
[3] Source: IMF estimates










