Insights

20+ Years of Our Thoughts

By Kieran Brennan April 29, 2026
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Kuroto Fund was up +27%, net of all fees, in the first quarter of 2026. By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets index returned 0%, and the MSCI Frontier Markets index was down -1%. Kuroto’s strong performance was principally driven by our oil-producing companies, which were up +78% in the quarter. Our Ghanaian and Nigerian non-resource investments were also up +48% and +18% respectively. EXITING GEORGIA CAPITAL In the first quarter, we sold the last of our Georgia Capital, exiting a successful long-term investment. Since we received Georgia Capital shares, which were spun out of the Bank of Georgia in 2018 at roughly £10 per share, the price has appreciated +260%. In the years immediately following its spinout from the Bank of Georgia, Georgia Capital struggled. The company took on too much debt as they expanded in multiple industries simultaneously. This aggressive behavior stressed the balance sheet and the stock traded at as much as a 50% discount to the “sum of the parts” Net Asset Value (NAV). To their credit, Georgia Capital’s management team realized their mistake and subsequently vowed to exit capital-heavy businesses while spending all available free cash flow (FCF) to pay down debt and buy back stock so long as the company’s shares traded at a meaningful discount to NAV. The execution of this plan combined with double digit organic growth at the underlying businesses allowed the company to compound NAV per share at over 20% for many years. From its peak share count, the company bought back 33% of its shares outstanding at an average price of roughly half of today’s stock price. As the buybacks continued year after year, the market eventually caught on to the value that was being created through this financial arbitrage, and the discount to NAV has gradually shrunk. Absent the excessive holding company discount, the case for management to continue to allocate excess free cash to share buybacks becomes less compelling. We believe management will start to include acquisitions in their capital allocation decisions, which fundamentally changes our investment case. The underlying Georgia Capital portfolio should continue to grow double digits, but we are finding better risk-adjusted return opportunities elsewhere. While we are pleased with the return, we will miss the uncorrelated returns that Georgia Capital provided. Additionally, we will miss the straightforward capital allocation policy adopted by the company’s founder and CEO, Irakli Gilauri. He pursued a disciplined strategy that few CEOs are willing to embrace. We think the market will reward him with a lower cost of capital in the years to come given the discipline he showed buying back the stock when the discount to NAV was larger. We were also very impressed with the talent he recruited to run his portfolio companies. The performance at several of them have turned around recently after initially struggling, and the Bank of Georgia especially has clearly displaced TBC as the best bank in Georgia. THE IMPACT OF HIGHER OIL PRICES The Kuroto Fund portfolio has been and always will be a collection of great businesses. That is, after all, why we chose the name Kuroto , which means connoisseur in Japanese. Our fund’s name is intended to emphasize our appreciation for the characteristics that make our companies exceptional. Owning great businesses does not mean that we ignore macro factors. We have an active view of the macro paths of the countries in which our companies operate, and of the commodities that some of our exceptional companies produce. As we developed an increasingly constructive view on the long-term oil price, we shaped the portfolio to be resilient in a higher oil price environment, while still focusing our investment process on company-specific research and valuation. To help distill the impact of higher oil prices on the Kuroto portfolio, it is useful to segment our portfolio into the following five groups: 1. Ghanaian equities 2. Nigerian equities 3. Brazilian equities 4. Central Asian equities 5. Oil-producing company equities Given our macro analysis on oil prices, it is no coincidence that four of these five segments benefit from higher oil prices. With respect to our upstream oil companies, the connection is obvious. Our non-resource companies in Nigeria, Brazil, and Kazakhstan are also clear beneficiaries as all three countries are meaningful net exporters of crude oil. Higher oil prices improve the government budgets and current accounts in these countries. This leads to additional fiscal stimulus and strengthens the local currencies, both of which are good for our consumer-oriented businesses in these countries. For our investments in Ghana, the impact of higher oil prices is more complicated. Ghana is resource-rich, but it is still an oil importer and higher oil prices are a negative for the country. Thus far, higher gold and cocoa bean prices have more than offset the impact of high oil prices. Given the nuanced commodity picture, we expect the reforms undertaken by Ghana’s Mahama administration to be more decisive than the oil price. For example, debt to GDP has now fallen to 50% as the country continues to deliver on its IMF program. In contrast to the majority of our Kuroto portfolio (and as evidenced by our significant outperformance in Q1), most of the Emerging and Frontier indices are negatively impacted by high oil prices. The top four countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets index, namely China, Taiwan, India, and South Korea – which combined make up over 75% of the index, are all major oil importers. In fact, only about 15% of the index is made up of net oil exporting countries. The situation for the MSCI Frontier Markets index is similar as the index is dominated by oil importers including Vietnam, Morocco, Romania, Slovenia, Kenya and Bangladesh. Only approximately 15% of the index is in companies from net oil exporting countries. Sincerely, Sean Fieler & Brad Virbitsky
By Kieran Brennan April 29, 2026
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners Precious Metals Fund, L.P. rose +7.4% in the first quarter of 2026. Over the same period the price of gold rose +8% and the MVIS Junior Gold Mining Index rose +3.3%. Our portfolio of producing miners led the performance in the quarter returning +12%, while the earlier-stage, pre-production mining portfolio finished the quarter up +4%. THE COMING GOLD MINING M&A CYCLE With gold trading at $4,800 per ounce, the 28 largest Western gold miners are generating an enormous amount of cash. By our calculation, the 28 gold miners listed below will generate close to $60 billion of free cash flow in 2026. After dividends and buybacks, nearly $47 billion of that $60 billion will wind up on these companies’ balance sheets.
By Kieran Brennan April 29, 2026
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners, L.P. rose +32.1% net of fees in the first quarter of 2026 while the S&P 500 index declined -4.3%. Equinox’s performance was primarily driven by the strength of our energy equity portfolio, but we also enjoyed positive contributions from our gold miners, non-resource companies in Emerging & Frontier markets and equity shorts. TODAY’S FRAUGHT INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE The 2020s have been an exceptional decade for Equinox Partners thus far. Our oil and gas companies, gold mining investments and emerging markets businesses have all performed well. As a result, our fund is up 530% since January 1, 2020. Despite this strong performance, our portfolio remains noticeably undervalued. Our nine producing gold miners have a weighted average IRR of 22% at spot gold prices. Our pre-revenue gold companies trade at just $122 per reserve ounce. Our E&P companies generate a 19% free cash flow yield in 2028 at $80 oil, and our non-resource companies trade at 7.8x 2026 earnings. While we are confident in our specific investments, we believe that the overall investment environment is becoming more challenging. The euphoric mood in the stock market strikes us as ominous given the seriously negative geopolitical and economic developments. To be prepared to take advantage of increasingly likely market dislocations, we have increased our liquidity and meaningfully reduced our net equity exposure from 123% in January 2023 to 92% at the end of Q1 2026. The likely developments that are not being properly discounted by the stock or bond markets are as follows: 1. Wars in Iran and Ukraine remain unresolved 2. Democrats retake the House and launch a two-year investigation of the Trump administration 3. Inflation heads higher, not lower 4. Private credit losses kick off a credit cycle 5. U.S. fiscal deficits head higher, not lower THE COMING GOLD MINING M&A CYCLE With gold trading at $4,800 per ounce, the 28 largest Western gold miners are generating an enormous amount of cash. By our calculation, the 28 gold miners listed below will generate close to $60 billion of free cash flow in 2026. After dividends and buybacks, nearly $47 billion of that $60 billion will wind up on these companies’ balance sheets. 
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