Mine Visit Note: WAF

EQUINOX PARTNERS - Precious Metals Miners 
Site visit - west African resources 
july 2022 Notes and Videos

Watch our Research Room episode on WAF

Dates July 26, 2022

Mines Visited Sanbrado

Countries Visited Burkina Faso

Equinox Team CIO, Sean Fieler | Analyst, Stephen Saroki | Head of IR, Daniel Schreck


OVERVIEW

West African Resources (WAF Australia) is a gold producer that owns the Sanbrado mine located south of the capital of Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou. Ahead of schedule and under budget, WAF poured first gold in Q1 2020. In 2021, its first full year of production, the company produced 288,719 ounces of gold, meeting guidance on costs while exceeding guidance on production. In the final quarter of 2021, the company made two key acquisitions. They acquired the 1.3 million ounce Toega deposit, which will go through the Sanbrado processing facility. In addition, they acquired the 6.8 million ounce Kiaka deposit. These acquisitions lengthen mine life along with giving the company sightlines to 400,000 ounces of annual production. Despite the unique challenges offered by the jurisdiction, WAF’s management team has shown an ability to operate and deliver, and in the meantime allocate capital in an accretive fashion.

 

metrics

Market Cap $960m USD
Enterprise Value $795m USD
EV/CF 4.8x 2023 estimated cash flow
P/NAV (5% discounts) 0.4x
Resources 11.6m ounces of gold

EV/Resource $69 per ounce of gold

Reserves 1.5m ounces of gold

EV/Reserve $530 per ounce of gold

AISC ~$1000 per ounce estimate '22

Thesis

Aligned with shareholders, CEO Richard Hyde, who owns 1.7% ($16 million) of the company, has put together an impressive operation. In addition to the exploration upside on the original Sanbrado land package, he accretively acquired the Kiaka and Toega deposits from B2Gold. In the process, he has generated considerable value and given the company a runway toward 400,000+ ounces of annual gold production by 2025. The attractive organic growth and production profile should lead to both improved NAV and a re-rating in the company’s stock.


Trip summary

Sean, Dan, and I were picked up from Orezone’s Bomboré mine and spent the evening at Sanbrado with the senior operations team. The next morning, we visited two of the pits, the processing plant, the tailings storage facility (TSF), and the underground mine. The team was welcoming and offered us a comprehensive picture of the asset and future plans.  We got a good sense of the organic growth in/around the core operations, while getting a better understanding of Kiaka. It's essential to meet the people actually operating the mine.


Management and governance

This visit was run by the operating team. While definitely the youngest operating team at the mine level that I’ve come across, the experience was impressive. The group was both knowledgeable and motivated. We had ample time to speak with them on a personal and professional level, and they demonstrated that they are a capable and cohesive group.


Luke Holden, General Manager: He’s has over 15 years of experience in the mining space, with site-based operational roles in West Africa and Australia. Most recently, he was Director General of Nordgold’s Taparko mine in Burkina Faso. Intelligent, honest, and hard working, he’s put together a solid team. He commands his team’s respect.


Tim Ashworth, Underground Manager: Having both open pit and underground mining experience, Tim is the elder statesman of the team. He has managed mines all over the world, including nickel mines in the Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam. In addition to other African experience, he was previously working as the Underground Manager for Regis Resources, an Australian producer with a good reputation. 


Jessica Morgan, Open Pit Manager: With 20 years of experience in the space. She worked for Freeport-McMoran and Glencore in the Democratic Republic of Congo. She did work for Randgold in Mali.  Jessica worked at Nordgold’s Taparko mine in Burkina Faso. Her most recent position prior to West African Resources was as Regional Manager for Nevada Gold Mines.

Watch our Research Room episode on Burkina country risk

JURISDICTION

The general perception of Burkina Faso is heavily influenced by international headlines. Between jihadist activities and coups, most investors are reticent to underwrite investments there. But despite this noise, we view it as one of the better mining jurisdictions in the world. Land concessions are easily attained. Exploration permits are readily given. Mining permits generally come within 12 months. Projects come on time and on budget. To provide some context, even in Tier 1 jurisdictions like Canada, many projects take 4 to 5 years to permit. The government in Burkina understands the economic proposition offered by mining and enthusiastically supports the industry. The people line up for jobs as they pay considerably 3-4 times more than any alternatives available to them.


The country poses several challenges, first and foremost security is an issue. There is also limited and unreliable grid power;  the country is land locked; and, asphalt roads are infrequent as you approach the interior. That said, the local work ethic is outstanding, and economic development, whether from FDI, local spending has a long fairway.


Since the killing of Muammar Gaddafi in the fall of 2011, security has deteriorated throughout French West Africa. In recent years, there have been a widespread rise in violence committed by jihadist militants, a trend which is obviously concerning for Western mining companies.  While the overall concern is warranted, the particularly location of a mine is of paramount importance.  Where the Sanbrado mine is located, for example, remains a relatively safe. The lion’s share of issues have been occurring in the lawless northeast and eastern portion of the country. Mines in these regions, such As Nordgold’s Taparko mine and Endeavour’s Boungu, have suffered as a result (see map).


The good news is that safe and unsafe areas are relatively well defined. As such, your mine’s location in the principal determinant of its security situation.  But, even in the safe parts of the country, security requires a significant investment.  Accordingly, the mine has a series of security check points, a double walled camp, proximity gun towers, numerous security protocols, and an ample complement of security guards with military experience.


Our take aways are that while security is concerning, mining operations are not effected unless the mine is actually attacked. In particular, the mines benefit from strong community support, and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why.  There is so much local support for the companies because the alternative to mining for most people is substance farming.  Because of the deep residue of local support, even the coup in Burkina Faso in January 2022 had no impact on mining operations. In talking with people at the mine site, they seemed to suggest it was not going to change what they do. 

 

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)

One of the more remarkable things about Burkina Faso is that mining constitutes the vast majority of direct foreign investment. There are no Starbucks or McDonalds, not even in the capital. Google and Facebook don’t have offices there. Mining, on the other hand, has brought in billions of dollars in investment to the country. In addition to the 10% free carried interest, ~4% royalty, and 27.5% tax rate, the project employs about ~1350 people, with 90% of these people being Burkinabe. Even what is ostensibly a low-paying job as a truck driver pays more than 4x the annual per capita income in the country. Mining promotes economic development, and is offering the people of the country an opportunity for a better life. According to the team, the Burkinabe people are the best and hardest workers regionally, and even globally. Given the regional importance of gold mining, and to Burkina in particular (80% of export value), there is a strong ecosystem of geology schools and company-specific advancement.

investment timeline

West African Resources has a robust pipeline of organic growth opportunities. With their acquisition of Toega, they’ve evened out and lengthened Sanbrado’s production profile. The Kiaka acquisition will be a new, separate asset, and is expected to be in production in 2025. On top of these, there are clear opportunities on the Sanbrado land package that have yet to be fully explored, including what will likely be additional satellite pits and another underground which could extend the mine life by 15+ years.


sanbrado

The Processing Mill:

1.      Built by Lycopodium, the mill operates like a well-oiled machine. We walked the mill from rock crushing to gold pour (Sean pressed the button but sadly couldn't keep the gold). Lycopodium builds tend to operate at ~10-20% above nameplate capacity, and Sanbrado’s mill is no exception.

2.      They are in the process of installing an additional gravity circuit. This is an improvement should help to enhance throughput through the mill with minimal cost and a high return.

3.      What became apparent in observing the mill is the hardness of the rock (Bond Work Index ranges from 10-25) and the importance of reliable power to get the appropriate grind size. While far from the hardest rock, it is no simple task to get the right grind size, and WAF does a great job of doing this.


The Open Pits:

1.      After visiting the M1 Pit, which has been fully mined out, we visited the M5 pit.

2.      There are two blasts in each 24 hour period. They occur before each shift change.

3.      Even though we visited during the rainy season, the open pits seem to be operating well. The excavators are operating efficiently, and the trucks are not waiting long before they are filled with either ore or waste.

4.      Given the competency of the rock, the bench widths were fairly narrow, and the pit slope angles were fairly steep. This is good precisely because it means the company is not moving excess waste.


The M1 Underground:

1.      The underground mining conditions are excellent. The rock is competent. Most noticeably, the shotcrete wasn’t redundant, an affirmation of the competency of the rock.

2.      They were 3 or 4 working faces, and this is more than sufficient to get the right tonnage and blend to meet production targets. It is clear that the group has done a great job of grade control drilling, so they’ve been effective identifying the ore with minimal dilution.

3.      There is room to extend the ramp further down, as the ore slopes 80 degrees and appears as if there’s more depth. They are drilling exploratory holes now to prove out the thesis. There is some exceptional grade in the pit which we saw up close.


Tailings Storage Facility/Off Channel Reservoir/Etc.

The Tailings Storage Facility looks great, has plenty of capacity, and is managing the water well.


growth

1.      Toega: WAF acquired Toega from B2Gold for what amounts to ~$50 per ounce in the ground plus a 0.5% royalty that kicks in after a 3% royalty pays $25 million (this $25 million is included in the purchase price of $45 million, but is staged as production occurs) and the 0.5% royalty is capped 1.5 million ounces of Toega production. Toega has a 1.3 million ounce resource with a gold grade of 1.9 g/t. Combined with a strip ratio that is below 5 (4.7 to 1), these ounces are very economic. What’s more important is that the Toega deposit is located just 14 km from Sanbrado and will be trucked to the asset. As a result, this high grade material will not require substantive capex to mine and process. This was a shrewd acquisition on behalf of WAF. We expect this deposit to enter the mine plan within the next 24 months  and will solidify WAF’s ability to produce ~200,000 ounces at Sanbrado over the next 10 years.


2.      Kiaka: Acquired from B2Gold for less than $15 per ounce plus a 3% royalty on the first 2.5 million ounces produced and a 0.5% royalty on the next 1.5 million ounces produced, WAF again exhibited excellent judgement from a capital allocation standpoint. Located 45 km to the south of Sanbrado, Kiaka ore will not be shipped. Instead, WAF just released a feasibility study on the economics of a mine at Kiaka. With $430 million in capex, the project has an NPV using $1750 gold and a 5% discount rate of $856 million. This includes just 4.5 million of the 7.7 million ounces in resource and delineates an 18.5 year mine life with production averaging 219,000 ounces per year. With widths of hundreds of meters, 0.8g/tonne, and a low strip it’s “like an iron ore body that could do 250k ounces/year for 20 years”. Expected to go in production in 2025, WAF has sight lines to doubling their production in just 3 years.  They have to be prudent on developing the mine, as always, as mills now have a 96 week lead time. They will be making a decision soon as a result.


exploration

1.      WAF’s land package is large and, on our view, in the early stages from an exploration perspective. Given the prolific nature of the belt, we have confidence about the ability to consistently add mine life over time.

2.      Underground Potential: On just the Sanbrado land package, we expect there to be multiple undergrounds. In addition to the M1 underground that is currently being mined, it seems clear that there will also be an M5 underground below the M5 pit. In looking at the continuity of the mineralization at depth, this is low-hanging fruit for the company. On top of that, the M1 underground shows no signs of stopping at depth, which is pretty consistent with what we’ve seen in this region of West Africa.

3.      MV3: Just 6 km from Sanbrado, the company has already found this satellite open pit deposit with depth potential. They have already drilled out excellent widths and grades, and this deposit has just started to be drilled. (bottom image to right)


*** END ***



*Figures and statements as of July, 2022 visit. This is an internal research note written by an analyst employed by Equinox Partners Investment Management, LLC. It is not intended for distribution. This information was intended exclusively for the person to whom it was delivered and ought not to be distributed further. Opinions are expressed throughout this note as of the date of the note. Opinions can be wrong or can prove to be right. Investment decisions are made in part as a result of mine visits and company discussions, but not exclusively so.


Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Any investment in a fund or managed account entails a risk of loss, including the entire amount invested. Performance is shown net of management fees, performance fee, and expenses, for each series in the consolidated managed account unless otherwise indicated. Account values are presented gross. Index returns adjusted for inception date of accounts. All performance is unaudited and based on valuations prepared by the adviser and is subject to revision. Net exposure includes short position exposure. See the End Notes on the following page for more important information regarding the performance information shown. 


End Notes

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By Kieran Brennan October 31, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners Precious Metals Fund, L.P. rose +36.2% in the third quarter of 2025 and is up +90.2% for the year-to-date 2025. By comparison, the Junior Gold Mining Index GDXJ rose +46.6% in the quarter and is up +132.7% for the year-to-date. Exploration stage companies were the best performing segment of the portfolio, appreciating +55.0% in the quarter. The spot gold price rose +18% in the quarter and is up +47% for the year-to-date. The letter that follows provides our thoughts on the outlook for the gold price and implications for the portfolio holdings. gold The gold bull market, initially driven by central bank buying, has evolved into an investor-driven dollar debasement trade. This second phase of the gold bull market is more explosive than the first because it draws on the approximately $470 trillion of the world’s wealth as opposed to the roughly $35 trillion of central bank balance sheets. If President Trump fans the dollar debasement fire by forcing a politicized Fed to cut rates, gold could rapidly displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. However, if President Trump takes a more nuanced approach to the Fed, gold should still displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency over time with the competition between gold and the dollar taking longer to play out. Gold investors warning about fiat currency debasement is nothing new. That, after all, is why gold investors own gold in the first place. There’s also nothing new about most American investors ignoring these warnings. The dollar’s relative stability has long made concerns about dollar debasement appear quixotic. Since the early 1980’s, American inflation has been largely tolerable, the dollar has outperformed almost all other fiat currencies, and U.S. government bonds have been the safest asset to own in an economic downturn. The dollar has sloughed off so much criticism for so long that Janet Yellen likely did not imagine the chain of events that freezing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves would set into motion. With confidence in the dollar’s inertia and a bit of hubris, in our opinion, Secretary Yellen engineered the freezing of $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves and put the world’s central banks on notice that their use of dollar reserves depends upon the tacit approval of the U.S. Treasury. Foreign governments, shocked by this policy change, sought to reduce their dependence on the U.S. Treasury and doubled their gold purchases to roughly $60-80 billion per year (potentially $100 billion in 2025). This increase in central bank gold demand drove the gold price up over +50% from March 2022 to March 2025. This bull market, in turn, gave gold the additional scale necessary to function as a more viable alternative to the dollar and damaged the dollar’s air of invulnerability. This two-fold outcome is problematic because inertia and a lack of alternatives were fundamental to the dollar’s stability. On the back of gold’s appreciation, long-ignored arguments of gold investors began sounding more plausible. Financial professionals accustomed to deriding gold investors and referring to them as insects began to worry that gold’s price action is telling them something important. Jamie Dimon aptly summed up the change of heart: “This is one of those times where it is semi-rational to own gold.” His comment captures both his continued distaste for gold and his willingness to own it. Despite the broadening acceptance of gold as an investment, markets remain skeptical of the underlying dollar-devaluation narrative. Inflation, a broad measure of the dollar’s strength, is just 2.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 4.0%, indicating the bond market’s indifference to the dollar debasement narrative. Furthermore, the decline in the trade weighted dollar has partially reversed since early July. At this moment, the dollar debasement trade appears to be waiting for additional macroeconomic and geopolitical events to play out. Of these, none looms larger than President Trump’s effort to bend the Federal Reserve to his will. In January, the Supreme Court will likely allow President Trump to remove Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, making the selection of the next Fed Chair even more important. If Trump nominates a loyalist like Kevin Hassett who appears more committed to pleasing the President than price stability, we could see broadening concern about the dollar’s store of value and a growing asset allocation into gold. In this hyper-politicized Fed scenario, gold could quickly become a $100 trillion dollar asset and displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. However, if Trump nominates an institutionalist like Chris Waller, the dollar debasement trade will likely remain in limbo for a while as markets suss out how much control Trump really has over the Fed. Either way, the U.S. bond market will not be allowed to freely adjudicate the outcome at the Fed. We expect both Treasury and Fed to proactively manage the yield curve during the particularly politically sensitive period when the Fed is cutting rates while inflation is above their stated 2% target. Treasury will keep longer-dated bond issuance to a minimum while coercing banks to keep the Treasury market well bid. JP Morgan increased its holdings of Treasuries by $80 billion in the first half of this year, and we expect other banks to follow suit. The Fed, for its part, has announced an end to quantitative tightening and its intention to shift its balance sheet from mortgage-backed securities to Treasuries. Given the likely extent of the coordinated intervention of the Treasury and Fed, the bond market will not be a good indicator of the market’s confidence in Trump’s economic policies. Gold will be. To the extent that investors sense that the bond market is not providing a reliable price signal, they will begin paying more attention to gold. And, should the gold price becomes the accepted indicator of U.S. financial health, the Trump administration will take action to influence it. At the very least, this will entail the Trump administration encouraging other central banks to stop buying gold or even sell gold. But the anti-gold policy options are limitless. Needless to say, the U.S. government pushback on gold will not solve the dollar’s long-term structural problems. Nor will it mark the end of gold’s challenge to the dollar. It will simply mark the next phase of financial repression. Our Gold Mines The second phase of the bull market in gold has been broadly positive for our portfolio, as a portion of the investor money flowing into gold has bid up gold mining equities as well. Where central banks buy the physical gold bullion, private wealth investors allocating to gold will also buy gold mining stocks. The GDXJ Junior Mining Index is up +132.7% for the year-to-date through September 30. Even with this year’s rapid rise in the gold mining portfolio, valuations remain cheap at spot gold prices. Our in-production portfolio trades at a 24.0% IRR as compared to a 23.4% IRR on March 31. The most dramatic mis-valuation among our gold miners continues to be in the pre-production companies. While these equities have appreciated more rapidly than our producing companies for the year-to-date 2025, they began from such a low valuation that even at twice or three times their January price, they are still undervalued. Troilus Gold, a junior gold mining company with an 11.2 million ounces gold-equivalent resource in Quebec, Canada, is a case in point. Troilus Gold shares have more than tripled in 2025, rising from C$0.31 to C$1.35 per share. The company still trades at an IRR of 30%, 0.2x price-to-NAV (using a 10% discount rate), and a price per ounce of recoverable gold of $63. When Troilus goes into commercial production in 2029, we expect it will generate annual net income roughly equal to its current market cap. Troilus historically traded at an extremely low valuation because the market did not believe that the company could finance the project's upfront capital expenditure of $1.3 billion. Throughout 2025, Troilus began addressing these financing concerns by signing an offtake agreement with a European smelter and a related letter of intent for $700 million of debt financing on attractive terms. If Troilus Gold raises the necessary equity and signs a streaming arrangement to fully fund the mine’s construction, we believe the stock will trade much closer to its NAV (using a 10% discount rate and the spot gold price) of $2.5 billion.
By Kieran Brennan October 30, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners, L.P. rose +24.5% net of fees in the third quarter and is up +54.4% for the year-to-date 2025. By comparison, the S&P 500 index rose +8.1% in the third quarter and is now up +14.8% for the year-to-date 2025. Our quarterly performance has been almost exclusively driven by our gold and silver miners. In the third quarter, the spot gold price rose +18%, and the fund’s mining portfolio returned +40%. As of this writing, 78% of Equinox Partners’ capital is invested in the gold and silver sector. The letter that follows provides our thoughts on the gold price and our gold mining holdings. Gold The gold bull market, which was initiated by central bank buying, has evolved into an investor-driven dollar debasement trade. This second phase of the gold bull market is more explosive than the first because it draws on the approximately $470 trillion of the world’s wealth as opposed to the roughly $35 trillion of central bank balance sheets. If President Trump fans the dollar debasement fire by forcing a politicized Fed to cut rates, gold could rapidly displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. However, if President Trump takes a more nuanced approach to the Fed, gold should still displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency over time with the competition between gold and the dollar taking longer to play out. Gold investors warning about fiat currency debasement is nothing new. That, after all, is why gold investors own gold in the first place. There’s also nothing new about most American investors ignoring these warnings. The dollar’s relative stability has long made concerns about dollar debasement appear quixotic. Since the early 1980’s, American inflation has been largely tolerable, the dollar has outperformed almost all other fiat currencies, and U.S. government bonds have been the safest asset to own in an economic downturn. The dollar has sloughed off so much criticism for so long that Janet Yellen likely did not imagine the chain of events that freezing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves would set into motion. With confidence in the dollar’s inertia and a bit of hubris in our opinion, Secretary Yellen engineered the freezing of $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves and put the world’s central banks on notice that their use of dollar reserves depends upon the tacit approval of the U.S. Treasury. Foreign governments shocked by this policy change sought to reduce their dependence on the U.S. Treasury and doubled their gold purchases to roughly $60-80 billion per year (potentially $100 billion in 2025). This increase in central bank gold demand drove the gold price up over +50% from March 2022 to March 2025. This bull market in turn gave gold the additional scale necessary to function as a more viable alternative to the dollar and damaged the dollar’s air of invulnerability. This two-fold outcome is problematic because inertia and a lack of alternatives were fundamental to the dollar’s stability. On the back of gold’s appreciation, long-ignored arguments of gold investors began sounding more plausible. Financial professionals accustomed to deriding gold investors and referring to them as insects began to worry that gold’s price action is telling them something important. Jamie Dimon aptly summed up the change of heart: “This is one of those times where it is semi-rational to own gold.” His comment captures both his continued distaste for gold and his willingness to own it. Despite the broadening acceptance of gold as an investment, markets remain skeptical of the underlying dollar-devaluation narrative. Inflation, a broad measure of the dollar’s strength, is just 2.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 4.0%, indicating the bond market’s indifference to the dollar debasement narrative. Furthermore, the decline in the trade weighted dollar has partially reversed since early July. At this moment, the dollar debasement trade appears to be waiting for additional macroeconomic and geopolitical events to play out. Of these, none looms larger than President Trump’s effort to bend the Federal Reserve to his will. In January, the Supreme Court will likely allow President Trump to remove Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, making the selection of the next Fed Chair even more important. If Trump nominates a loyalist like Kevin Hassett who appears more committed to pleasing the President than price stability, we could see broadening concern about the dollar’s store of value and a growing asset allocation into gold. In this hyper-politicized Fed scenario, gold could quickly become a $100 trillion dollar asset and displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. However, if Trump nominates an institutionalist like Chris Waller, the dollar debasement trade will likely remain in limbo for a while as markets suss out how much control Trump really has over the Fed. Either way, the U.S. bond market will not be allowed to freely adjudicate the outcome at the Fed. We expect both Treasury and Fed to proactively manage the yield curve during the particularly politically sensitive period when the Fed is cutting rates while inflation is above their stated 2% target. Treasury will keep longer-dated bond issuance to a minimum while coercing banks to keep the Treasury market well bid. JP Morgan increased its holdings of Treasuries by $80 billion in the first half of this year, and we expect other banks to follow suit. The Fed, for its part, has announced an end to quantitative tightening and its intention to shift its balance sheet from mortgage-backed securities to Treasuries. Given the likely extent of the coordinated intervention of the Treasury and Fed, the bond market will not be a good indicator of the market’s confidence in Trump’s economic policies. Gold will be. To the extent that investors sense that the bond market is not providing a reliable price signal, they will begin paying more attention to gold. And, should the gold price becomes the accepted indicator of U.S. financial health, the Trump administration will take action to influence it. At the very least, this will entail the Trump administration encouraging other central banks to stop buying gold or even sell gold. But the anti-gold policy options are limitless. Needless to say, the U.S. government pushback on gold will not solve the dollar’s long-term structural problems. Nor will it mark the end of gold’s challenge to the dollar. It will simply mark the next phase of financial repression. Our Gold Mines The second phase of the bull market in gold has been broadly positive for our portfolio, as a portion of the investor money flowing into gold has bid up gold mining equities as well. Where central banks buy the physical gold bullion, private wealth investors allocating to gold will also buy gold mining stocks. The GDXJ Junior Mining Index is up +131% for the year-to-date through September 30. Even with this year’s rapid rise in the gold mining portfolio, valuations remain cheap at spot gold prices. Our in-production portfolio trades at a 24% IRR as compared to a 25% IRR on March 31. The most dramatic mis-valuation among our gold miners continues to be in the pre-production companies. While these equities have appreciated more rapidly than our producing companies for the year-to-date 2025, they began from such a low valuation that even at twice or three times their January price, they are still undervalued. Troilus Gold, a junior gold mining company with an 11.2 million ounces gold-equivalent resource in Quebec, Canada, is a case in point. Troilus Gold shares have more than tripled in 2025, rising from C$0.31 to C$1.35 per share. The company still trades at an IRR of 30%, 0.2X its NAV (using a 10% discount rate), and a price per ounce of recoverable gold of $63. When Troilus goes into commercial production in 2029, we expect it will generate annual net income roughly equal to its current market cap. Troilus historically traded at an extremely low valuation because the market did not believe that the company could finance the project's upfront capital expenditure of $1.3 billion. Throughout 2025, Troilus began addressing these financing concerns by signing an offtake agreement with a European smelter and a related letter of intent for $700 million of debt financing on attractive terms. If Troilus Gold raises the necessary equity and signs a streaming arrangement to fully fund the mine’s construction, we believe the stock will trade much closer to its NAV (using a 10% discount rate and the spot gold price) of $2.5 billion. New Board Seat at Gran Tierra Energy On September 30, portfolio company Gran Tierra Energy announced that Brad Virbitsky has joined the board on behalf of Equinox Partners. While it is a relatively modest-sized position in the fund, we believe there is significant value to unlock, and we can help realize that value through our participation in the boardroom.
By Kieran Brennan October 30, 2025
Kuroto Fund Wins HFM 2025 US Performance Award
By Kieran Brennan October 30, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Kuroto Fund, L.P. appreciated +16.6% in the third quarter and is up +51.6% year-to-date 2025. By comparison, the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose +11.0% in the third quarter and is up +28.2% for the year-to-date. Performance in the quarter was driven primarily by our investments in Nigeria, with additional strong contribution from our largest position, MTN Ghana. A breakdown of Kuroto Fund exposures can be found here . Portfolio Changes During the third quarter, we initiated a position in Solidcore Resources, a company described in our February webinar . Solidcore is similar to the oil companies we profiled in our Q2 2025 letter in that it is a competitively advantaged commodity producer. The company’s main asset is a long-lived and low-cost mine, the management team is among the best in the region, and the infrastructure they are building will make them a natural consolidator of regional assets. Given the subsequent increase in commodity prices, we ended up purchasing the bulk of our position at a 40%+ free cash flow yield. Solidcore is now a top 5 position in the fund. We funded our purchase of Solidcore by reducing our Georgia Capital position weighting from 17% to 11% and by selling our stake in a Greek consumer-focused business. In the case of Georgia Capital, while the discount to the sum of the parts value decreased from 50% to a more reasonable 30%, we still see it as a compelling investment opportunity. Georgia Capital’s portfolio of oligopolistic businesses is growing earnings double digits, buying back stock, and trading at a single digit, look-through price-to-earnings multiple. The sale of our Greek investment was driven by stock appreciation combined with a management change that led us to re-underwrite our investment. GHANAIAN AND NIGERIAN MACRO Over the past decade, Nigeria and Ghana have endured a seemingly unending series of self-inflicted macro problems. Inflation increased to over 30% in both countries, and the currencies depreciated 64% and 79%, respectively. Ghana defaulted on its domestic and foreign debt in 2023, and Nigeria imposed onerous capital controls for multiple years. However, 2025 has been a turning point for both countries. For the first time in over a decade, investors in these markets are experiencing macroeconomic tailwinds. In Ghana, since the beginning of the year, the currency has appreciated 43% vs. the U.S. dollar, GDP growth averaged over 6%, the budget has been in primary surplus, inflation declined from 24% to 9%, and debt to GDP declined from 62% to 43%. Ghana’s macro environment has improved due to three factors: One, Ghana’s debt restructuring is mostly finished, and the country now has a much smaller interest expense burden, which should decline further as the central bank lowers rates to be more in line with the decline in inflation. Two, the new government which assumed power in January has cut spending 14% in real terms. Three, the country has been helped by the large increase in the gold price, which is both the country’s largest export and a significant component of Ghanaian central bank reserves. Ghana now has 4.8 months of import cover, half of which is held in gold bullion. Whether Ghana can maintain this strong start to the year is an open question, but the fundamentals are certainly in a better place than they have been in the past decade. In Nigeria, President Tinubu’s bold reforms upon taking office are finally starting to have some effect. In 2023, Tinubu eliminated the local fuel subsidy which consumed about 40% of the government’s annual revenues, floated the currency which resulted in a 68% depreciation, forced a recapitalization of the banking sector, and removed the board of the notoriously corrupt national oil company and replaced them with technocrats who formerly worked at companies like Exxon and Shell. While not perfect, the scale of the reforms is impressive by any standard. A year later, inflation has fallen from over 30% to the high teens and is expected to fall to single digits next year. Economic growth has increased from less than 3% to over 4%. Oil production is up more than 10% and oil theft is down 90%. Importantly, the exchange rate has been stable for a year and anecdotally, we are hearing that conditions on the ground are night and day different, businesses are looking to invest, and banks are willing to lend. We initially invested in Ghana and Nigeria in 2018 with the expectation that both countries would eventually adopt a sane set of macroeconomic policies. While it took longer than we expected, sane policy is gaining traction in both countries, and our superior companies are getting re-rated to more sensible, albeit still very cheap, valuations. In Ghana, our main investment has been in MTN Ghana, which has compounded at approximately 25% in U.S. dollar terms since 2018 despite all the on-the-ground challenges. The stock’s historical return understates our investment performance because we increased our weighting at opportune times. The total contribution to our P&L has been +$17.7 million over that time frame, resulting in a +24.9% cumulative contribution to fund returns. Our Nigerian investment results have also been strong. While our initial entry was poorly timed, we added counter-cyclically, and as a result have generated +$9 million of P&L, contributing a cumulative +15.0% to the fund’s return. Our experience in both markets underscores the importance of our investment strategy of looking at out-of-favor markets to find competitively advantaged, well-run businesses at unusually cheap valuations. NEW BOARD SEAT AT GRAN TIERRA ENERGY On September 30th, portfolio company Gran Tierra Energy announced that Brad Virbitsky has joined its board on our behalf. While it’s a relatively modest position size in the fund, we believe there is significant value to unlock and we can contribute to that process through our participation in the boardroom. Sincerely, Sean Fieler & Brad Virbitsky
By Kieran Brennan August 1, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners Precious Metals Fund, L.P. rose +13.2% in the second quarter of 2025 and is up +39.7% for the first half of 2025. By comparison, the Junior Gold Mining Index GDXJ rose +18.7% in the quarter and is up +58.7% for the first half of the year. Our meaningful year-to-date underperformance relative to the GDXJ reflects the continued discount at which our companies trade compared to peers. Specifically, our portfolio of producing companies trades at an average internal rate of return (IRR) of 24%, roughly double the 11.5% IRR of the broad universe of gold miners that BMO covers. the gold mining bull market is young The skepticism that characterizes the gold mining sector stands in sharp contrast to the enthusiasm in the broader stock market. The animal spirits that have propelled popular stocks like Wingstop and Robinhood to an average of nearly 80 times 2025 earnings remain totally absent among gold mining investors. One indication of the sober mood that dominates the gold mining sector is the use of gold price assumptions below spot in net asset value (NAV) calculations. Looking at four important sell-side houses for the sector, their models include an average long-term price assumption of $2,400 per ounce, representing a 28% discount to the quarter-end spot price. 
By Kieran Brennan July 24, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners, L.P. rose Equinox Partners, L.P. rose +11.6% net of fees in the second quarter and is up +24.1% for the year-to-date 2025. By comparison, the S&P 500 index rebounded +10.9% in the second quarter and is now up +6.2% for the year-to-date 2025. Our portfolio has performed well across the board this year, with our gold miners, oil and gas producers, and emerging market businesses all appreciating. We were particularly gratified by the long-overdue outperformance of several of our earlier stage gold companies in the first half of this year. With markets and complacency on the rise, we think it prudent to address the non-negligible risk of an economic downturn. Beware the Next Recession 
By Kieran Brennan July 23, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Kuroto Fund, L.P. appreciated +21.3% in the second quarter and is up +30.1% for the first half of 2025. By comparison, the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose +12% in the second quarter and is up +15.3% for the first half of 2025. Key performance drivers for the fund have been our large position in MTN Ghana, as well as the strong returns from our holdings in Nigeria and the Republic of Georgia. A breakdown of Kuroto Fund exposures can be found here . Despite Kuroto Fund’s outperformance in the first half of the year, our portfolio remains very attractively valued. Given the diversity of business models we own, it is difficult to find metrics that provide an accurate picture of the value and quality of our portfolio in the aggregate. In the absence of an alternative, our portfolio’s weighted average price-to-earnings multiple of 7.3x 2025 earnings, dividend yield of 5.2% and ROE of 24.7% will have to do.
By Dan Donohue May 1, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners Precious Metals Fund, L.P. rose +23.4% in the first quarter of 2025. Over the same period the price of gold rose +18.9%. The fund’s performance was driven by strong returns from both the producing and exploration stage companies as gold crossed $3,000 per ounce. Trump's New Economic Policy Trump’s New Economic Policy has roiled markets and bolstered investor gold buying globally. While the violent market gyrations remain a focus for our team, we have also been thinking through the long-term effects of Trump’s policies. In this latter endeavor, Nixon’s 1971 New Economic Policy has proven an invaluable guide. The policy similarities between Nixon’s first term and Trump’s second are striking. Both presidents declared emergencies, raised tariffs, cut spending, reduced foreign aid, blamed foreigners, devalued the dollar , proposed tax cuts, attacked the Federal Reserve chair, and directly managed consumer prices. There are, of course, also meaningful differences. Most notably, Trump has raised tariffs more, devalued the dollar less, and has not imposed formal wage and price controls. Nevertheless, the policy resonance is striking.
By Kieran Brennan April 30, 2025
Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Kuroto Fund, L.P. appreciated +7.3% in the first quarter of 2025, while the broad MSCI Emerging Markets index rose +3.0%. Kuroto performance for the quarter was driven primarily by the strong performance of our operating companies in Georgia and Ghana. A breakdown of Kuroto Fund exposures can be found here . Returning to Brazil Though the Kuroto Fund didn’t invest outside of Asia until 2014, as a firm we began investing in Brazil in the late 1990s and made our first sizable investment there in 2004. We have followed the market ever since. Given our love for the country of Brazil and admiration for many of the companies there, it has been challenging for us to remain mostly absent from Brazilian capital markets for the past decade. We stayed away for a variety of reasons, but primarily because we didn’t like the valuations on offer. So it is with more than a bit of enthusiasm that we were able to make two substantial investments in Brazil this January, taking our portfolio weighting in the country from 0% to 10%. Brazil remains a macroeconomic and political adventure, but today’s valuations are incredibly attractive. The Brazilian stock market is down over 40% in US dollars over the past 14 years. 
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