Equinox Partners, L.P. - Q3 2019 Letter

Dear Partners and Friends,

PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO

Equinox Partners, L.P. was down -3.4% in the third quarter of 2019. For the year to date through October 31st, the fund was up +7.8%.

[1]

the devaluation of common sense

"There's no place to go. You just have to ride it out. You invest even though you expect the price to decline." 

—Robert Schiller, October 23rd, 2019


“The repo operations have…been effective at restoring calm in money markets…” 

—Lorie Logan, senior vice president of the New York Fed’s Markets Group, November 4th, 2019

The U.S. stock market is making new highs as the Federal Reserve spends billions to calm markets.  The coincidence of these events suggests a positive consensus view of the Fed’s intervention into the repo market. The purchases are evidence that our central bank stands ready to address whatever problems may arise in the plumbing of the financial system. As such, the Fed’s action does not raise concern but instead instills confidence about the Fed’s willingness to act preemptively. 


This logic strikes us as overly simplistic and the accompanying confidence misplaced. Just because the Fed has taken $193 billion of repos onto its balance sheet since September 17th does not mean the Fed can or will do the same for other asset classes. Moreover, if overnight repo rates can jump almost five-fold without warning, it is reasonable to think that there are other problems lurking in our debt-laden financial system.


Two segments in particular strike us as potential flash points: auto loans and leveraged loans. Both sectors have more than $1 trillion in current credit outstanding, would be politically awkward to rescue, and evince warning signs despite their still contained delinquencies.


aUTO lOANS


Since the global financial crisis in 2008, U.S. auto loans have nearly doubled. “U.S. consumers held a record $1.3 trillion of debt tied to their cars at the end of June, according to the Federal Reserve, up from about $740 billion a decade earlier.”

[2]

Such impressive credit growth is typically accompanied by an easing of some sort, and booming U.S. auto loans are no exception. Rather than lowering FICO score requirements—although this has happened at the margin—lenders have radically extended the tenor over which they are willing to make auto loans.  As a result, “[a]bout a third of auto loans for new vehicles taken in the first half of 2019 had terms of longer than six years, according to credit-reporting firm Experian PLC.  A decade ago, that number was less than 10%...”

[3]

The increased tenor of auto loans has been necessitated by a combination of rising car prices as well as the growing need of borrowers to roll-over negative equity from their previous car loan into their new car loan. About a third of consumers trading in their car to purchase a new car had negative equity. Sensing that such auto loans are a train wreck waiting to happen, we shorted the corporate debt of Ally Financial, America’s largest auto finance company, earlier this year.  We subsequently covered the short at a slight loss and hope to reestablish the position when the sector’s delinquencies begin to actually tick up.

[4]

lEVERAGED LOANS


We see a similar problem in the leveraged loan market. Like the auto loan market, the quality of leveraged loans has deteriorated in recent years. This deterioration is captured by two data points: the rapid rise in covenant-light loans, which now account for more than 80% of leveraged loans outstanding, and the rising debt to EBITDA ratios of newly issued leverage loans, which now stand at over 5.5x.  Both metrics are cause for concern. But what we find most disturbing about the leverage loan market is the growing dollar value of these loans that are held by CLOs.

[5]

CLOs performed better than other structured-products in the 2008 downturn. Accordingly, they have been embraced with gusto in this cycle, with new issuance above $100 billion annually. The thinking underpinning these flows mirrors the logic that caused so much trouble in 2008. While slicing and dicing a credit with good historical performance does not necessarily create a problem, problems do tend to arise when investors behave as if history and structure have made them immune from the systematic risk inherent in the underlying credits. In the case of leveraged loans, we believe that we crossed this threshold some time ago.   

don’t throw in the towel like schiller


Despite the obvious valuation problem with conventional asset classes, the Robert-Schiller-throw-in-the-towel mentality is just wrong.  A wide variety of assets have not participated in the current bubble. These out-of-favor investments are no longer widely held by alternative investment vehicles, including hedge funds. Many hedge funds, like just about everyone else, are now heavily invested in large tech stocks.  As such, our persistence in owning underappreciated and even maligned assets in advance of a market correction is increasingly unique.


While it has admittedly been a long wait, our recent results suggest that our strategy may finally be about to bear fruit.  After declining for the first ten months, our E&P portfolio has risen sharply in November. Our gold miners are up 43% for the year to date. And, our emerging markets portfolio has just turned positive for the year after ten months of sideways trading. Moreover, despite their recent upticks, our E&P, mining, and emerging markets companies trade at incredibly low valuations.  Based on our estimates for next year, our E&P companies trade at 5.0x cash flow, our gold and silver miners trade at 4.1x cash flow, and our emerging markets companies trade at 5.5x earnings.


[6]

don’t expect a repeat of 2008

When the current bull market in financial assets eventually turns, we expect the experience to be very different than the last crash. Investment decision making has changed radically over the past decade. 80% of equity trading is now based on passive flows and algorithms. It is therefore completely unclear how equity markets will behave in a stress test.  It is equally unclear how the bond markets will behave if dealers are unwilling to take on inventory. While impossible to predict with any precision, it stands to reason that the massive reduction in prudential judgement guiding investment decisions will not result in less volatility. Rather, we expect more volatility, and consequently more upside, in the contrarian sectors in which we’ve invested.  We believe that owning an actual alternative to today’s most overvalued financial assets in advance of a correction is more important than ever.


[7]









Sincerely,


Sean Fieler     


end notes

[1] Sector exposures shown as a percentage of 9.30.19 AUM. Performance contribution is derived in U.S. dollars, gross of fees and fund expenses. Interest rate swaps notional value and P&L are included in Fixed Income. P&L on cash is excluded from the table as are market value exposures for derivatives. Equity short positions of operating companies are netted out against long positions. Unless otherwise noted, all company data is derived from internal analysis, company presentations, or Bloomberg.  All values are as of 10.31.19 unless otherwise noted.


[2] The Seven Year Auto Loan.  WSJ, Eisen and Roberts, October 1, 2019. 


[3] Ibid


[4] A $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride. WSJ, Eisen and Andriotis, November 9, 2019


[5] Source: Arena Investors, LP.


[6] Emerging markets companies exclude operating companies trading in developed markets. Valuation as of November 13, 2019.



[7] Source: CNBC.


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By Kieran Brennan April 30, 2025
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Dear Partners and Friends, PERFORMANCE Equinox Partners, L.P. rose +11.0% net of fees in the first quarter of 2025. Over the same period, the S&P 500 index declined -4.3%. Equinox’s performance was driven by the strength of our gold mining equity portfolio, most notably by our earlier stage exploration companies that rose dramatically as gold crossed $3,000 per ounce. Trump's new economic Policy As Trump’s New Economic Policy roiled markets, we selectively harvested short positions and increased our ownership in oil and gas companies at deeply discounted prices. Violent market gyrations remain a focus, but we have also been thinking through the long-term effects of Trump’s policies. In this latter endeavor, Nixon’s 1971 New Economic Policy has proven an invaluable guide. The policy similarities between Nixon’s first term and Trump’s second are striking. Both presidents declared emergencies, raised tariffs, cut spending, reduced foreign aid, blamed foreigners, devalued the dollar, proposed tax cuts, attacked the Federal Reserve chair, and directly managed consumer prices. There are, of course, also meaningful differences. Most notably, Trump has raised tariffs more, devalued the dollar less, and has not imposed formal wage and price controls. Nevertheless, the policy resonance is striking.
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Our companies that do not yet generate any cash flow are cheaper still. Ascot, Thesis, Troilus and Goldquest, for example, have an average IRR of over 30% at current metals prices. Six Winners and Six Losers in 2024 Note: Below IRR is our Equinox internally calculated IRR based on 2024 year-end market prices and forecasted future FCF per share to equity. Borealis Mining: 2024 Performance +29%, IRR 48% Borealis was founded by Kelly Malcolm in 2023 to leverage a large heap leach facility in Nevada by acquiring nearby low-grade heap leach assets. We invested in a pre-IPO round at a $30M post-money valuation. At the time, Borealis had approx. $5M worth of crushed stockpiles, a fully permitted heap leach facility, ~60,000oz of reserves ready to be processed with limited capex and substantial exploration potential at depth. In late 2024, Borealis began to acquire nearby deposits. Borealis purchased Bull Run for $6M in cash. This translates to $14 per ounce for ~500,000oz of already defined resources, and confirms managements intuition that there are small, stranded assets for sale in Nevada. We expect Borealis to continue this acquisition strategy and ramp to become a ~75,000 oz per year producer. K92 Mining: 2024 Performance +22%, IRR 17% K92 controls the world-class Kainantu mine in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. This mine is a high-grade, low-cost asset with a 3 million oz resource at 7g/t. K92 produced 120,000 oz last year, and we expect the company’s Phase 3 expansion will take annual production to over 150,000 oz (gold equivalent) in 2025. While K92 has often struggled to meet its ambitious growth targets, the company has strung together two consecutive quarters of meaningfully higher production with higher than reserve grades. K92 recently expanded the milling capacity which had been a meaningful bottleneck for years. If the company can reach Phase 4, the Kainantu mine’s production will produce ~400,000 oz at a bottom quartile cash cost of <$1000/oz while maintaining a clean balance sheet with minimal leverage. West African Resources: 2024 Performance +38%, IRR 31% In 2024, West African Resources (WAF) remained on-time and on budget in the build of the company’s second mine in Burkina Faso, called Kiaka. Once Kiaka is commissioned in Q3 2025, WAF will be a ~450,000 oz annual producer for the next 10 years. While the construction has proceeded as expected, WAF was adversely impacted by the local content language in Burkina Faso’s new mining code. Rather than pay the resulting mark up in their rental of local equipment, WAF elected to purchase their mining fleet outright. This decision added $150 million to the company’s capital budget and resulted in a July equity raise of the same amount. While we were disappointed with the need for more equity capital, ultimately the raise will accelerate WAF’s buy-back and dividend plans. If the company continues to trade at the current valuation, we expect the board will announce a sizable share repurchase as soon as the company’s debt is repaid. Hochschild Mining: 2024 Performance +96%, IRR 18% Hochschild Mining (HOC) is a proven mine builder with the strategy of reinvesting free cash flow into new projects to grow production. In 2024, we visited their newly commissioned mine in Brazil, called Mara Rosa, which was successfully built on time and on budget. Mara Rosa will deliver a 20%+ project level IRR and highlights HOC's competence in executing medium-size projects in Latin America. We expect the company will be able to repeat this success with another mine in Brazil, the Monte Do Carmo project in the neighboring state of Tocantins. Big picture, HOC is a family-owned business with a goal of producing 500,000 ounces of gold per year by 2030. While we would prefer a return on capital goal rather than a growth target, we appreciate the straight-forward way the company organizes its operations, and we believe the company will not undertake projects with less than a 20% cash on cash IRR. Moreover, unlike many growth miners, when the company reaches their targeted 500,000 ounces of annual production – anticipated for 2030 - we expect HOC to transition to return free cash flow to shareholders. Galiano Gold: 2024 Performance +35%, IRR 29% Galiano has been busily working on a new mine plan which will be released on January 28th. We expect the company’s production guidance will increase as Galiano elects to move forward with the redevelopment of their higher grade Nkran pit. We also expect increased exploration spending in 2025 as the company ramps up work on their newly consolidated land package. We are expecting Galiano to guide to a production target of approx. 250,000 ounces per year by 2027. Even at this higher rate of production, we anticipate the company will be able to more than replace reserves given the prospectivity of the Asankrangwa gold belt in which they operate. While Galiano will have to reinvest the vast majority of its cash flow in growth in 2025 and 2026, the company should become a substantial free cash flow generator beginning in 2027. Solidcore Resources: 2024 Performance +22%, IRR 21% Solidcore, a spin-out from Polymetal, is a new position in our fund. Solidcore is run by CEO Vitaly Nesis, and controlled by Oman’s sovereign wealth fund. The company operates two long-lived mines in Kazakhstan and produces 480,000 ounces of gold annually at a competitive All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1,300/oz. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.2x, Solidcore trades at an almost 50% discount to its peers. This undervaluation is largely due to the company’s sole listing on the Astana International Exchange in Kazakhstan. We expect Solidcore to generate roughly $400 million in free cash flow per year at current gold prices. In 2025 and 2026, this free cash flow will be invested in a new pressure oxidation autoclave. Beginning in 2027, we anticipate that $100 million USD of the company’s free cash flow will be distributed to shareholders. This prospective dividend along with the company’s plan to re-list on the London Stock Exchange offers two catalysts that should drive a significant re-rating. Orezone Gold: 2024 Performance -30%, IRR 27% While Orezone completed its initial build on time and on budget, the company failed to generate the free cash flow necessary to internally finance the expansion of its operations in Burkina Faso. The company’s reliance on high-cost diesel generators and an unreliable power grid proved particularly problematic. Largely due to higher-than-expected power costs, the midpoint of their AISC guidance increased by $100/oz from last year’s projection of $1,338/oz. Despite the elevated power costs, Orezone successfully closed their financing for the hard rock processing plant in December 2024. This financing will enable Orezone to increase annual production from approx. 120,000 oz in 2024 to ~180,000 oz in 2026. We expect 2025 to be a pivotal year for the company as they will begin to generate sufficient cash to pay down debt and continue building towards their 250,000 oz/year target. We are also encouraged by the company’s ongoing exploration program which has the potential to increase the Bombore’s mine life at higher grades. C3 Metals: 2024 Performance -62% C3 stock declined significantly in 2024 even as the company made significant progress advancing their projects in both Jamaica and Peru. With respect to their Jamaican asset, C3 Metals signed a joint venture agreement with the Stewart family, one of the wealthiest families on the island. C3 is now well-positioned to do a JV deal with a larger international mining company that can finance the costly deep holes necessary to test the porphyry copper deposit’s potential. In Peru, C3 Metals received a permit to access one of its land packages located just 40 kilometers east of MMG’s Las Bambas mine. This permit, which took years to secure, opens the door for further exploration in a proven copper-rich region. With the permit in hand, C3 Metals should be able to bring in a larger partner to drill out the asset. Troilus Gold: 2024 Performance -45%, IRR 35% In May 2024, Troilus submitted its feasibility study to the Canadian government. This new study detailed their plan to develop a 22-year open pit mine that would produce approx. 300,000 oz of gold per year. With current gold prices north of $2,600 and copper hovering around $4, the project will likely move forward. The company has received financial support from a handful of export credit agencies interested in its 10% copper production. Troilus is also in the final stages of submitting the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (“ESIA”), another key milestone as they advance towards construction. Located 300 kilometers north of Chibougamau, Quebec, the Troilus project is a brownfield site in a favorable mining jurisdiction with the potential to become a Top 10 copper gold project in Canada. We are fans of CEO Justin Reid and believe in his ability to permit the project and advance it towards becoming a premier North American copper-gold producer. At a $4/oz equity market cap to gold equivalent ounces in ground ratio, we believe Troilus is one of Canada’s best leveraged investments to rising gold and copper prices. Ascot Resources: 2024 Performance -23%, IRR 38% Ascot Resources put its Premier gold project on care & maintenance in September of 2024. At the time, the company didn’t have enough ore coming from the underground mine to profitably operate the 2,500 tonnes per day mill. To rectify the lack of available ore, the company raised $43 million, extended the term of their debt, and decided to invest in an additional 2,500 meters of development before commissioning the mill. The board then made a change at CEO and brought in Jim Currie for his extensive underground mining experience and added our own Coille Van Alphen to the board. Underground development is currently underway, and we expect the mill to restart in Q2 2025. One more injection of capital will likely be required to ensure the company has a sufficient working capital buffer as they restart the mill. When the mine reaches commercial production, it will be able to generate a sustainable ~$100m of FCF per year which should translate into a stock price of at least $1 CAD per share. Great Pacific Gold: 2024 Performance -47% Great Pacific owns two highly prospective gold exploration projects in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Over the course of 2024, the company refined its exploration targets and drilled 5000m at its Kesar project in the highlands of PNG. The Kesar project looks to be an extension of nearby K92’s mine, and as such may be sold to K92. Great Pacific will begin drilling exploration targets at its second PNG property in Q2 of 2025. This property is a brownfield site with past production at a grade of more than 10 g/t. Great Pacific has a third asset in Australia, which we believe could be sold to fund the company’s exploration activities in PNG. Great Pacific is led by an excellent CEO in Greg McCunn. We got to know Greg through a previous investment in West Africa. As CEO, he brings the necessary vision, discipline, and accountability to an exploration company. We believe the company will deliver exploration success at their two PNG assets and ultimately enable Greg to create shareholder value in a variety of ways. GoGold Resources: 2024 Performance -24%, IRR 30% GoGold has been waiting two years for its permit in Mexico. The delay was caused by the previous Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) staunch opposition to new mining development. In the end, while neither of AMLO’s major proposed changes to the mining code passed, few mining permits of any kind were issued during his time in office. GoGold’s large cash buffer and existing heap leach operation enabled the company to wait out AMLO without needing to raise additional equity capital. We think their patience will soon be rewarded as the new administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to process permit applications on their technical merits. In GoGold’s case, the technical merits of their Los Ricos South project are exceptionally strong with over 100 million oz of silver at an average grade of 276 g/t. Sincerely, Equinox Partners Investment Management
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