Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q4 2010 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO
Kuroto Fund, L.P. appreciated 6.1% in the quarter ended December 31,
2010. For the full year, our fund generated a 49.3% return. This compares to the MSCI Asia Pacific index which was up 17.3% in 2010. As of February 28, 2011, our fund was down -10.3% for the year-to-date.
Fiscal Prudence and the Long Shadow of the Asia Crisis
Over the past twelve years, Kuroto has benefited not only from the region’s rapid economic growth but also from responsible fiscal management as demonstrated by the flat to declining public sector debt to GDP figures characteristic of Kuroto’s largest country weightings (see graph below).
Emerging Asia’s fiscal prudence stands in marked contrast to the unsustainable fiscal course which the developed world has charted. This fiscal restraint, however, is not the product of a particularly public spirited political class. In fact, elected officials in emerging Asia are on average more corrupt and indifferent to the common good than their developed world counterparts. From India’s scandalous 2G license sales to Indonesian President Yudhoyono’s personal interference in corruption investigations, self-interest and venality appear to be the rule rather than the exception in the region. Nor is emerging Asia’s fiscal conservatism the result of a generalized fiscal austerity. In fact, government outlays in emerging Asia have grown at a very rapid clip over the past decade (see graph below).
************NEED GRAPH FROM KUROTO Q4 2010*****************
The key to emerging Asia’s sustainable fiscal path has been their governments’ willingness to periodically restrain the rate of growth in spending, thereby keeping fiscal deficits in-line with or lower than nominal GDP growth rates. At times, this control has required politically painful choices. Take, for example, Indonesia’s repeated reductions in fuel subsidies as oil prices rose—a very unpopular decision which drew street protests. As painful as these decisions were, however, Indonesian politicians understood that these hard choices were preferable to the punishment the bond market would eventually impose if their fiscal deficits grew unchecked.
Emerging Asia’s relatively responsible fiscal behavior, albeit in an optimal high growth context, is part of the ongoing reaction to market discipline generously meted out during the Asia Crisis. For politicians in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines in particular, market discipline is not an abstract concept, it is a vivid memory in which not just companies but governments were shut out of the debt markets. The experience of running out of money, being downgraded, and having to borrow under duress, has had a lasting effect. By contrast, those countries which were relatively insulated from the Asia crisis, such as India, remain more cavalier in their fiscal practices and consequently continue to pose a greater ongoing risk of fiscal irresponsibility.
But, India’s shortcomings can be easily forgiven when viewed from America, a country where market discipline has been absent from the government debt market for years. By dint of our developed market and reserve currency statuses, American politicians, instead of learning the virtues of fiscal rectitude, have learned the perverse lesson that the larger the crisis the cheaper their borrowing. Not only has there been no market discipline of the federal government, there still isn’t any real fear of the likely future consequences of massive deficit spending. This lack of fear might help explain why, despite facing high and rapidly growing levels of public debt, the US Treasury hasn’t aggressively taken the precautionary step of significantly terming-out its debt and locking in historically low yields (see graph on next page).
While Kuroto’s portfolio has already benefited handsomely from the continued good fiscal behavior in Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and even India, when markets eventually do get around to judging all governments on their merits rather than their status, Kuroto stands to benefit even more. On this note, a more meritocratic market for government bonds may be closer on the horizon than many observers expect, as the US dollar, quite notably, failed to rally much in the most recent March “risk off” downdraft.
Operations
We spent much of the first quarter engaged in a search process to replace our departing COO, Brian Tsai. In his nearly five year tenure with us, Brian ably strengthened and broadened the operations of our firm; we wish him the best in his new endeavor. We are very pleased to announce that Roger Anscher will be joining our firm effective March 31st. A lawyer, CPA, and COO with ten years of experience at a large New York based hedge fund, Roger will bring an invaluable depth of experience and sound judgment to our firm’s operations.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
William W. Strong











