Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q4 2003 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
Kuroto’s Fifth Anniversary
Since inception during the fear filled days following the Asia Crisis, Kuroto fund has steadfastly maintained its strategic course: To exploit regional stock market valuation anomalies that provide exceptional long-term investment opportunities. Foremost among these inefficiencies is the Asian markets’ habitual tendency of undervaluing ‘intangible assets businesses.’ These companies typically have very high sustainable returns on capital employed, are stable and predictable, generate lots of free cash, have strong balance sheets and, because their end sales are almost exclusively in Asia, meaningful unit volume growth is the norm.
Over the years, it has been the rare stock that has passed our rigorous quality/valuation criteria and become part of Kuroto’s portfolio. This selectivity has paid off as our collection of high quality businesses has generated an enviable five year performance record. Importantly, the bulk of these returns have come from the growth of intrinsic value of our holdings as opposed to multiple expansion, which means the valuations on our portfolio remain low. Our success over the past half decade, almost 30%/yr outperformance verses the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, once again proves wisdom of the Charles Munger quote we affix to the top of our quarterly letters: “The importance of being in really great businesses for long stretches, in my view, should not be underestimated. It’s a very important factor.”
Besides Kuroto Fund’s significant growth (partners’ capital is currently eighty million USD), the largest single change to the fund over the years has been in our country weightings. Indonesian and Indian exposures have expanded from zero in 1999 to 27% and 24% respectfully. As a result of these meaningful Indonesia and India weightings and the reduction of our Korea exposure, our portfolio is now much more geographically diversified.
India
"The dominance of the US is already over. There's no center in this world economy. India is becoming a powerhouse very fast. The medical school in New Delhi is now perhaps the best in the world. A technical graduate of the Institute of Technology in Bangalore are as good as any in the world. Also, India has 150 million people of whom English is their main language. So, India is indeed becoming a knowledge center." Peter Drucker, Fortune January 12, 2004
We have recently returned from a two week sojourn to India to reconnoiter new investment ideas. Despite the dramatic appreciation of Indian stocks last year, we returned very enthusiastic about the investment prospects we saw there. The source of our enthusiasm is an unusual one for skeptics like us: we are persuaded that many of the Indian companies we saw are on the threshold of a period of sustained organic profit growth. Furthermore, the high single digit multiple of earnings on which many of these companies trade seriously undervalues their strong future earnings' growth and capital allocation discipline.
Most of the outstanding businesses we visited in India are benefiting from a double digit growth in disposable income that is a function of India's accelerating economy. From personal accessories to residential mortgages, India's burgeoning middle class is increasing its consumption in concert with its rapidly growing income. Sensible government policies and falling domestic interest rates bear much of the responsibility for the unbinding of the Indian consumer:
"The housing boom captures most elements of the Indian growth story-rising consumer aspirations (to have an owned house, rather than a rented one), enhanced affordability due to lower interest rates, and a change in government policy (tax breaks) towards consumers. The equated monthly installment (EMI) payable (net of tax breaks) on a Rs100,000 house loan has fallen from Rs1,570 to Rs681 over the past seven years, when incomes have risen by 84%." CLSA Report The Paradox .January 2004.
With the penetration rate in the residential mortgage market still all of 1%, it's no wonder that our financial holdings in India are consistently growing their mortgage assets at 25-30% per year. Importantly, the high ROEs of several of these companies allows them to fully fund growth with internally generated cash flow while still devoting considerable excess cash flow to dividends, share buybacks, acquisitions and new business opportunities.
India's currency, like most Asian currencies, adds the final positive dimension to this investment story. The Indian Rupee's significant under-valuation is readily apparent to the tourist visiting the country, an observation which official estimates of purchasing power parity corroborate. The cause of the undervaluation- the Indian authorities are actively managing the Rupee/Dollar rate to restrain Rupee appreciation (n.b. India’s rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves). Like China, India's growing dominance of numerous global industries reflects the country's growing abilities as well as the substantial undervaluation of its currency. Eventually, when the Rupee/Dollar market equilibrium is re-established, Kuroto should profit further.
Kuroto’s Monthly Performance
We have often stated that out fund’s short term performance is meaningless. Stock price movements over months or even full years often bear little relation to changes in the intrinsic value of the underlying investments. Consequently, Kuroto has not expended significant resources on making immediately available highly accurate estimates of short term performance. That said, as our limited partnership base grows and changes, we recognize the need for a significant upgrade in our reporting procedures. Accordingly, we are 1) adding professional accounting staff to our operation, and 2) in discussions with our prime broker and our NAV calculator to accelerate the compilation of highly accurate month-end accounting statements. We want to stress that such monthly and even quarterly performance reports are only estimates and allow for a tolerable level of uncertainty. No performance numbers are finalized until our auditors sign off on them. While Kuroto’s investment horizon remains long-term, we recognize the importance of taking measures necessary to insure timely and accurate information flows to our investors.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
William W. Strong











