Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q4 2001 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
Performance
Kuroto Fund had a good year in 2001—on both an absolute and relative basis. Helped by a strong finish in the last quarter (forty two percent), Kuroto ended the full year up eighty-six percent (gross). With most Asian equity markets off during 2001, our relative annual outperformance clears the one hundred percent mark. Combined with the previous two years’ returns, Kuroto’s has gained one hundred eighty percent (gross) since inception and compounded our partners’ capital at a rate of over forty percent per year.
On the back of four extraordinarily profitable years, during which Berkshire Hathaway and the Sequoia Fund averaged returns in excess of thirty-five percent annually, Warren Buffett and Bill Ruane each dutifully informed their respective shareholders that the performance of those years must not be expected to (and did not) continue. In light of our performance over the past three years, we have asked ourselves if our partners should not also receive a message from us confidently predicting significantly lower future returns. However, in consideration of the persistent undervaluation of our portfolio (and at the risk of coddling unrealistic expectations) we simply cannot justify sending such a letter at this time.
Korea
Despite the significant appreciation of a few of our Korean stocks, spectacular gaps between intrinsic value and price persist on the Korean Stock Exchange. For each of our excellent companies that rose to a mid-single digit multiple, another remained mired in low-single digit territory. Consequently, we have been able to recycle some of Kuroto’s capital from the “expensive” companies into comparatively cheaper shares.
Perhaps it is no coincidence that some of our Korean companies finally began to assume more reasonable values during the second economic decline to impact Asia in three years. Most of the businesses in which we have invested have proven immune to the global recession; a number of them have actually shown excellent earnings progress throughout the downturn. With the sharp fall in Korean interest rates and the demise of local technology stock speculation, more investors are coming to see the attraction of the predictably growing free cash flows and very high earnings yields which we have long favored.
Risk/Reward in Asian Investing
In theory, risk and reward go hand in hand; in Kuroto, the relationship does not hold true. While we freely acknowledge that Asian markets are volatile, and we are well aware that businesses in the region are subject to substantial macro-economic, political, and corporate governance uncertainty, we submit that Kuroto’s risk of permanent capital loss is far less than modern portfolio theory would suggest. In our opinion, stocks such as our strong consumer nondurable franchises with good balance sheets and Westernized managers selling for outsized earnings yields embody the antithesis of risk.
Kuroto’s high returns are not a function of leverage—neither within the financial structure of our companies, nor in the portfolio itself. Nor are they the function of the business cycle. Nor are our results for 2001 a function of prescient market timing, as we have had only a very modest short selling exposure throughout last years’ bear market.
Rather Kuroto’s several years of superior returns are a function of disciplined undervalued stock selection combined with the patience required to see our investments prosper. For the latter factor, we owe much to our limited partners. We view our co-investors as an integral part of our competitive advantage. You, our patient partners, have allowed us to focus on absolute returns and thus allocate your capital far more effectively. Because we are not pressured to provide quarterly performance in this volatile region, we can fully implement our long term investment strategy—exploiting those rare instances where good business and low valuation overlap to produce exceptional potential returns fused with low risk.
Such investment opportunities go to the heart of why we find Asian investing so promising: the persistent mismatch between intrinsic business valuation and stock market price. With the exceptional performance of a few of our stocks last year, other investors, both local and foreign, will eventually grasp this extraordinary investment phenomenon. However, this process appears to only be in its nascent stages.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
William W. Strong
Gifford Combs










