Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q3 2016 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO
In the third quarter of 2016, Kuroto increased +8.3% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose +9.2%. As of December 19, Kuroto was up +12.9% and the MSCI EM Index increased +9.7% for the year to date.[1]
In the quarter, we exited a long-standing investment in an Indonesian financial, as the valuation reached a fairer level given the longer-term headwinds the business faces. We also made new investments in a Tanzanian consumer company and an Argentinean holding company. Beyond those small changes, we trimmed a number of positions.
Emerging Markets Resilience vs. Developed Markets Fragility
In comparing the recent anti-establishment election and referenda in the developed world to the spate of equally dramatic elections in the emerging world, we are struck by how much more range-bound the outcomes in the emerging world are in the face of large-scale changes. Put simply, emerging countries have the luxury of making enormous changes before institutional friction and economic consequences overwhelm the political moment.
Over the past two and a half years, we’ve seen enormous political change in the emerging world: Modi came to power in India, Widodo in Indonesia, Duterte in the Philippines, Kaczynski in Poland, and Macri in Argentina. In each case, these candidates ran on the basis of structural change that was sometimes hard to visualize during the campaign.
While it is still too early to confidently judge the success of all of these elected officials, Widodo is well on his way to proving how difficult real change is in Indonesia. But, elsewhere, the results have been more consistent with the electoral mandate. Kaczynski has deepened the divide between Poland and Western Europe, Macri has begun the economic liberalization of Argentina, Duterte has brought new meaning to “law and order” in the Philippines, and Modi is attempting to beat the ineffective Indian bureaucracy into shape. While Modi’s decision to conduct a war on cash within a cash economy may prove to be a bridge too far, these emerging markets economies have been surprisingly resilient in the face of such large-scale changes.
It is hard to imagine that the outcomes will be quite so range-bound in the developed West. To contemplate structural change in the developed world, one must grapple with enormous impediments to such change. Most notably, the bloated financial architecture of the developed world is simply not compatible with disruption. Sovereign bond yields, for example, cannot go up because financing costs would cripple nations, and stock prices cannot decline because central bank policy is dependent upon the wealth effect. Accordingly, many investors in the developed world have wrongly concluded that bond yields won’t go up much and stock prices won’t go down much. While this may make sense to investors, it would be a mistake to treat financial disruption as the ultimate constraint on politicians. The ultimate constraint on politicians is politics.
Accordingly, unlike the market, we expect more volatility in both the emerging and developed world. We recognize that mixing the growing electoral appetite for disruption with the fragility of the developed world’s financial system has significantly increased the spectrum of outcomes globally. That said, the emerging world is far bettered positioned to cope with change. And, in this environment, owning a collection of undervalued, high-quality companies in the emerging world is far more attractive than developed market stocks and bonds.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
Daniel Gittes
ENDNOTES
[1] Performance stated for Kuroto Fund, L.P. Class A on a net basis. An investor’s performance may differ based on timing of contributions, withdrawals, share class, and participation in new issues. Performance contribution as stated uses the fund’s dollar-weighted gross internal rate-of-return calculations derived from average capital and sector P&L. Sector performance figures are derived using monthly performance contribution calculations in US dollars, gross of all fees and fund expenses. P&L and exposures on cash and currency forwards included under Cash.










