Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q2 2005 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
Assets Under Management: “The Anchor to Performance”
“…it’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on a $1million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” (Warren Buffett Business Week 1999)
In Asia, the trade off between assets under management and returns is particularly steep. Happily, our own sizable investment in Kuroto as well as the fund’s performance based fee structure have neatly aligned our financial interests with those of our limited partners. We expect the fund’s recent closure to all new investment will maximize the long-run returns for you and us both.
Asian Currency Revaluation
Reacting to the Chinese central bank’s announced two percent renminbi revaluation, Senator Chuck Schumer invoked his own adaptation of an old Chinese proverb: “It is smaller than we had hoped but….a trip of a thousand miles can well begin with the first baby step.” Not only is the Chinese currency finally coming unstuck from the U.S. dollar, but the latter has been demoted to only one member of a basket of still undisclosed currencies. This move to a basket of currencies is the change that warrants Senator Schumer’s hopeful tone. The renminbi ‘baby step’ is symbolically a giant leap—the long awaited start of what should eventually be an historic international economic adjustment.
That other Asian currencies which had been unofficially tied to the renminbi are also now adjusting is perhaps more significant than China’s move. Consider the Malaysian ringgit. Fixed at 3.8 to the dollar since September 1998, the ringgit has long been significantly undervalued. Evidence of this undervaluation is readily apparent to any visitor. From the ridiculously cheap taxi rides to the low-priced meals, one is quite conscious that everything in Kuala Lumpur seems a bargain. Malaysia’s current account surplus, which is expected to rise to 15% of GDP this year, points to the extent to which the ringgit is mispriced.
Though the Malaysian central bank had officially maintained that their currency was only slightly undervalued, they hesitated all of thirty minutes before aping the Chinese FX move of July 22. At that time, Malaysia also announced an unpegging of the ringgit from the dollar so as to let it “float” against a still undisclosed basket of foreign currencies. As of mid-August, the market exchange rate of this currency sporting a 15% current account surplus had appreciated less than one basis point against the US dollar.
Over the past month, Kuroto has been able to increase our heretofore small exposure to the eventual revaluation of the ringgit at virtually the same exchange rate prevailing before the Chinese/Malaysian announcements. We are doing so by investing in a specific business we like regardless of the exchange rate. A large portion of this particular company’s costs are denominated in US dollars. So, when the ringgit does eventually appreciate, our investment will also benefit from higher margins. Astonishingly, this company’s stock price is unchanged since the July announcements.
Thanks to the political agenda of Asia’s central banks, Kuroto’s portfolio of undervalued Asian businesses remains denominated in undervalued currencies. We expect our holdings to meaningfully benefit from the further upward revaluation of these currencies in the future.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
William W. Strong










