Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q2 2002 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
The Decoupling of Asia
Asia, with its historically export-oriented economy, has often been called, “a warrant on world economic growth.” Not surprisingly, Asian stock markets have tended to reflect the region’s dependence on the rest of the world by trading in sync with world equity markets—usually with greater amplitudes of market moves. So it is of particular interest that we note the resilience of Asian equity markets in the face of the tenacious global bear stock market.
YEAR TO DATE MARKET PERFORMANCE (in US dollars)
(7/20/02)
MSCI Asia Pacific +4.4%
MSCI North America -25.2%
MSCI Europe -15.7%
MSCI World -19.2%
Source: Bloomberg
Asia’s multiple bear market experiences in recent years clearly distinguish the region from the rest of the world. As Ajay Kapur, chief equity strategist for Salomon Smith Barney Hong Kong, puts it: “Asia has been there and done that.” Kapur continues, “arrogance is past and malfeasance has been addressed.….currencies are reasonably valued; curre0t accounts are in surplus; companies are free cash-flow positive; debt is sharply lower; companies are disciplined about capital spending.” Kapur’s rationale for the decoupling of Asian markets from their Western counterparts resonates with us, as does his conclusion that “stocks in Asian remain ridiculously cheap.”
Snack Foods Limited: An Example of Private Market Value
In the summer of 2001, Kuroto Fund took a position in Australia’s second largest salty snacks concern. The company, Snack Foods Limited, was one of Frito-Lay’s wholly owned Australian subsidiaries until 1998. In that year Frito-Lay’s purchase of Smiths’, the market leader in Australia’s salty snack space, necessitated the global chip maker’s liquidation of Snack Foods Limited. Interestingly, it was Snack Foods’ own management which teamed up with a prominent local financier to purchase the business from Frito-Lay’s.
We first uncovered this story when Snack Foods’ publicly traded stock dipped last summer. At that time, the company was selling for eight times cash earnings, had a sound balance sheet, was aggressively buying back stock, and had excellent prospects for profit margin expansion. The Australian market had overlooked a crucial change in Snack Foods. Locals had simply failed to notice just how quickly the company had deleveraged its balance sheet following the debt-financed sale in 1998.
The prospect for margin expansion, rather than volume growth, made Snack Foods potentially much more valuable than the stock price suggested. Frito-Lay’s had paid a fancy price for Smiths’, and after three years under Frito-Lay’s management, Smiths’ was still generating only a nine percent EBITDA margin. This margin resulted in an inadequate single digit ROI on Frito-Lay’s new acquisition. In short, Smiths’ needed to raise their products’ prices. This would allow Snack Foods to do likewise, which in conjunction with their aggressive cost cutting and reduction of SKU’S, would surely produce the anticipated profit margin improvement. Clearly, Snack Food’s management team found their large personal stake in the company highly motivating.
Campbell Soup’s recent decision to acquire all of Snack Foods at almost twice our purchase cost affirmed our assessment of this branded food company’s value. In this particular instance, we are content to sell as we believe the bid approximates the intrinsic value of the business. However, it should be pointed out that a similar doubling in price would fall far short of the real value for the vast bulk of our other Asian holdings. Of the region’s stock markets, Australia’s is probably the most efficiently priced, in the sense that price most closely approximates the underlying intrinsic value of most companies. Korea, on the other hand, remains one the least efficiently valued markets in which we operate. For example, not long ago, an American based multinational made an offer for a Korean company in which we are invested. The indicated price, which in the end proved inadequate, was no less than four times the publicly traded value of the company. Needless to say, we look forward to additional private market transactions in Asia which reveal the intrinsic value of our holdings.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
William W. Strong
Gifford Combs









