Equinox Partners Precious Metals, L.P. - Q4 2019 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
yearend Top-five holdings
MAG Silver: 8.9% of the consolidated portfolios’ 12.31.19 value
MAG Silver is the 44% owner of a high-grade, large-scale silver project in Zacateca, Mexico scheduled to begin production at the end of 2020.
The joint venture’s (JV) tonnage will begin at 4,000 tonnes per day (tpd) and should increase to 8,000 tpd within a few years of initial production. At 8,000 tpd, the JV will have a stated mine-life in excess of 12 years and a functional mine-life of much longer.
At $18 silver and 4,000 tpd, the JV generates a 44% IRR with a cash cost of ~$5 per ounce of silver. At 8,000 tpd, the project’s IRR rises, the cash cost falls, and MAG’s portion of the JV’s free cash flow tops USD$100m per year. In the first year of commercial production, we expect the JV’s free cash flow to be reinvested in the expansion to 8,000 tpd. After that expansion, we expect MAG’s board to either reinvest the company’s free cash flow into high-return projects on the JV property or to return the free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Following the retirement of Johnathan Rubenstien, MAG’s current chairman, this spring, we expect the new board chair to crisply articulate MAG’s future capital allocation plans.
MAG’s unique combination of high-quality free cash flow and superior reinvestment opportunities should command a premium valuation. With a market cap of less than USD$1b, we believe that the company’s very desirable financial characteristics are being grossly undervalued by the market. Once MAG demonstrates its ability to generate and wisely allocate free cash flow, we believe the market will accord the company a much higher valuation.
Sandstorm: 8.4%
Sandstorm owns 190 royalties and streams. Most notably, Sandstorm has an economic interest in Endeavour’s Houndé and Karma projects, Yamana’s Chapada and Cerro Moro, Newmont’s Emigrant, and Equinox’s Aurizona. With record revenue of $89.4m, 23 producing assets, and 63,800 attributable gold equivalent ounces, 2019 was an outstanding year for Sandstorm.
Sandstorm’s management, led by CEO Nolan Watson, have proven to be savvy acquirers of new royalties and streams. Just this past year they acquired attractive, long-lived royalties on Lundin’s Fruta del Norte and Americas Gold and Silver’s Relief Canyon. These acquisitions, financed with free cash flow and debt, coincided with a weak share price and as a result an aggressive repurchase program. The management team’s willingness to buy back 5.8% of their outstanding stock last year, highlights their focus on growing intrinsic value per share.
Unlike its peers, Sandstorm is not a pure royalty and streaming company. In particular, the company holds a 30% equity stake in the Hod Maden mine in Turkey. While this asset has royalty-like characteristics, Sandstorm is an equity owner in the project, not a royalty holder. Accordingly, the market has given the company little credit for the value of this asset. As Hod Maden nears production, we expect the near-term prospect of USD$50m+ in additional cash flow to meaningfully re-rate the company’s stock.
Pan American Silver: 8.3%
Pan American Silver is the world’s second largest primary silver producer, with a diversified portfolio of 10 producing assets located in North America and South America. In addition to its producing assets, Pan American has a diverse option-like project pipeline. From Navidad in Argentina to Escobal in Guatemala, the company has exposure to a number of world-class, but politically challenged, assets for which it currently receives little value.
Pan America has a long track record of creating free cash flow and consequently has a strong balance sheet and a consistent dividend. Ross Beaty, Pan American’s chairman, and Michael Steinmann, its CEO, both have well-deserved reputations as good capital allocators. We have confidence that these two gentlemen will continue to make wise decisions with respect to reinvestment and the return of capital.
The company’s current priorities are asset optimization, debt reduction, and brownfield exploration. In 2019, the company focused its brownfield exploration on the La Colorada skarn discovery. The result is a very significant poly-metallic discovery adjacent to the company’s La Colorada silver mine in Mexico that should add over $1 billion USD to Pan American’s NAV.
Dundee Precious Metals: 7.9%
Dundee’s second Bulgarian mine, Ada Tepe, began commercial operations in the first quarter of 2019. While Ada Tepe was not completely immune to ramp-up issues, the plant has consistently achieved its designed throughput and recovery levels and should generate USD$75m of free cash flow this year. Chelopech, Dundee’s other Bulgarian mine, produces $100m of free cash flow per year, bringing the company’s free cash flow per year to USD$175m. At this run rate over the next five years, the cumulative free cash flow from Dundee’s two Bulgarian mines will exceed the company’s current market cap.
Dundee trades on an incredibly low multiple to its free cash flow for two reasons: 1) For years, the company’s smelter consumed all of its free cash flow; 2) The management failed to articulate a clear capital allocation policy. We believe both of these longstanding issues have been resolved. The smelter generated a modest amount of free cash flow in 2019 and should be a cash generator rather than consumer for the foreseeable future. David Rae, Dundee’s COO, will succeed Rick Howes as CEO this spring. With the company so undervalued and no internal use for its free cash flow, we expect David to announce a clear capital allocation policy with the support of Dundee’s board. For our part, we are encouraging the board and management to return half of the company’s free cash flow to shareholders, leaving a sufficient, but not excessive, amount of capital available for future growth.
Detour Gold: 6.4%
Detour Gold owns and operates the Detour Lake open-pit mine in northeastern Ontario, Canada. This single-asset mine produces ~550,000 ounces of gold per year and has a reserve life of 22 years. Given the attractive scale and jurisdiction of Detour Lake, the market has long thought that Detour would be acquired by a larger gold mining company. Accordingly, Kirkland Lake Gold’s CAD$27.50 bid per share for Detour last November came as no great surprise. The transaction captures a more than 100% year-over-year appreciation of Detour’s share price.
The groundwork for Detour’s sale began with Paulson Fund’s successful proxy fight in December of 2018. The resulting board hired Mick McMullen as CEO in May of 2019. Mick promptly cut unnecessary spending and improved the company’s cash flow. The market in turn rewarded Mick with a much higher stock price, and Mick locked in that higher stock price by selling the company to Kirkland. We expect shareholders to vote in favor of the deal at the end of January. And, while we will not be long-term holders of Kirkland, we consider Mick’s quick turnaround and sale of Detour a success.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler









