Equinox Partners, L.P. - Q1 2003 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
Is It March of 2003, or March 2000?
Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist, recently observed that “the mid-March buying frenzy felt more like March of 2000 than March 2003.” Global stock markets have been surging upwards, with technology counters leading the charge. The NASDAQ, for example, just hit a twelve month high. Equinox’s risk control process has positioned us well for this move, with a significantly smaller, less volatile and less technology concentrated short exposure. Consequently, losses on the short portion of our portfolio have been de minimus.
The current powerful bear market reversal is founded on the hope of an imminent capital expenditure renaissance that will enable earnings to catch up with extended share prices. We find it remarkable, that investor enthusiasm for equities in general, and for technology shares in particular, has returned to such elevated levels—levels, that once again, will be difficult to sustain in the face of economic reality. The latest Investors Intelligence survey has bulls outnumbering bears by better than a two to one margin. Even more telling is the NASDAQ 100’s implied volatility (VXN). The VXN has been an especially accurate inverse indicator of tech-investor complacency for the past several years, bottoming near the top of each of the NASDAQ 100’s bear market peaks. As shown below, the VXN is at a post-bubble low.
1 Performance is net of management fees but before general partner’s performance allocation.
2 Morgan Stanley Capital International Perspective's Europe, Australia and Far East Index measured in US dollars.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) vs. NASDAQ 100's Implied Volitility (VXN)1006001,1001,6002,1002,6003,1003,6004,1004,600Mar-00May-00Jul-00Sep-00Nov-00Jan-01Mar-01May-01Jul-01Sep-01Nov-01Jan-02Mar-02May-02Jul-02Sep-02Nov-02Jan-03Mar-03May-032737475767778797NDXVXNAmerican investors’ soaring enthusiasm for the prospective earning’s surge of ‘new era’ businesses has precluded inflows into an ‘old era’ sector with earnings actually soaring, namely the oil & gas industry. Despite generating first quarter profit numbers that “should have made investors ooh and ahh as if they were watching a fireworks display,” disinterest in the North American oil/gas patch remains palpable.
The favorable outcome of the Iraqi conflict, the limited war damage to the Persian Gulf oil fields, and the ensuing lowering of oil prices, have not dampened our long standing keenness for our energy companies. Equinox remains particularly optimistic given the strong fundamentals now asserting themselves in North American natural gas market; the oil/gas distinction is, incidentally, not one the broad stock market seems willing to make.
As of this past winter’s end, inventories of domestic natural gas had fallen to a multi-decade low. That this new inventory low came on the back of last fall’s record high inventory makes these figures all the more shocking. Despite currently attractive gas prices, US producers have not increased their drilling activity to a level that will stabilize, let alone regain, previous peak production levels. Hence, North American gas markets will only be balanced by a moderation of consumption brought about by very high prices.
No less than Alan Greenspan felt compelled recently to highlight America’s developing natural gas shortage: “I’m quite surprised at how little attention the natural gas problem has been getting, because it is a very serious problem.” Greenspan’s observation that the gas shortage is getting “little attention,” is borne out by the stubbornly low valuation of natural gas E&P companies.
Asian Stocks Hit New Lows
For some time now, Equinox has suspected Asia’s superior investment fundamentals would sustain that region’s stock markets even in the face of falling equity valuations elsewhere. In the long-run, we are confident that our supposition will prove correct. In recent years, however, the correlation between Occidental and Oriental stock markets has not only persisted but actually strengthened. Consequently, Asian stocks in the aggregate (including Japan) are now at their Asia Crisis lows of 1998.
MSCI Asia Pacfic Free5585115145Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03
Despite the Asian markets’ recent roundtrip, Equinox’s investment in the region has been quite profitable in recent years. More importantly, the outlook is promising. In this post Asian Crisis period, we have witnessed a significant improvement in corporate earnings, a pronounced drop in prevailing real interest rates, and a marked improvement in corporate governance. The valuation implications of the Asian stock markets’ long stagnation in the face of significantly improved fundamentals are obvious.
“Huge, Predictable Patterns of Extreme Irrationality”
Janet Lowe, author of a Benjamin Graham biography, has completed her book on Berkshire Hathaway’s brilliant, if less-famous, co-chairman, Charlie Munger. In it, Munger makes the following observation about the American investment landscape circa 1950:
“just out of our respective graduate schools, my friend Warren Buffett and I entered the business world to find huge, predictable patterns of extreme irrationality. These irrationalities were obviously important to what we wanted to do, but our professors had never mentioned them. [Understanding the problem of irrationalities] was not easy…. I came to [study] the psychology of human misjudgment almost against my will: I rejected it until I realized that my attitude was costing me a lot of money,’” (Janet Lowe, Dame Right!, Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger, page 67)
It has been Equinox’s long running contention that global financial markets continue to display “huge, predictable patterns of extreme irrationality.” Three years ago this spring, global financial markets saw the peak of one of the greatest speculative episodes ever recorded. To date, Equinox’s value based strategy has profitably capitalized on the unwinding of some obvious economic imbalances. But the unwinding of one or two bubbles notwithstanding, the “extreme” valuations produced by the “psychology of human misjudgment” have provided, and continue to provide, Equinox with extraordinary investment opportunity on both sides of our portfolio.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
William W. Strong
Anthony R. Campbell









