Kuroto Fund, L.P. - Q1 2023 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
PERFORMANCE
Kuroto Fund appreciated 3.0% in the first quarter of 2023.
Visit our performance page to view the Kuroto Fund, L.P. fund summary in more detail.
Select Opportunities in the Global Tech Pullback
For twenty-four years, we have repeatedly allocated Kuroto Fund’s capital to areas where capital is fleeing and valuations are compressed. Notably, we invested heavily in Asia post the Asian financial crisis and in international oil companies following the COVID-induced oil crash of 2020. In both instances, Kuroto Fund took large contrarian positions. In addition to these sizable decisions, we have made a series of smaller but equally contrarian investment decisions over the past decade including investments in companies in out of favor markets such as the Republic of Georgia, Nigeria, Ghana, and Turkey. Given our demonstrated pattern of investing in sectors and geographies that others are exiting, it is with great interest that we are watching the extensive pullback in technology companies globally, and particularly within our purview of the developing economies.
Last year, the EM Information Technology index declined 34%. From peak to trough, the index was down 41%. While these declines are substantial, unfortunately even these declines haven’t resulted in the index retracing much of the sector’s historic run. The EM Tech index is still 24% above its 2019 level and is trading at 19x forward earnings. That said, the tech selloff is creating a handful of interesting opportunities. Some smaller cap EM tech stocks are down much more than the index and are trading at attractive, while not distressed, multiples. As a result, we have been taking advantage of this sell-off to initiate two small positions, both roughly 3% weights, in stocks that are down over 50% from peak.
One of our additions is in a locally dominant software business that trades at a mid-teens earnings multiple and grows over 20% per year. The other is a rapidly growing, but barely profitable, global classified business trading at an attractive multiple on normalized margins. Combined with two longer held tech investments, technology now accounts for a modest but still material 15% of Kuroto. Three of the four tech companies we own are very profitable, trading at mid to low teens earnings multiples and growing earnings 20%+ per annum. The fourth just turned profitable last year and is a business that generally supports very high margins.
In addition to our 15% true tech weighting, our 14% investment in MTN Ghana and 7% investment in TBC Bank have large technology drivers. Specifically, more than half of MTN Ghana’s value derives from its app-based mobile money business. For our investment in TBC Bank, the upside is largely dependent upon its first mover advantage in Uzbekistan’s mobile banking market with a banking app. Interestingly, unlike our pure tech investments, MTN Ghana and TBC Bank both trade below 5x earnings, making them compelling value investments regardless of their sector.
In sum, while we are finding opportunities, our increased tech allocation has been modest as the opportunity also remains modest in our opinion. There are three reasons for our caution. First, and most importantly, the overall valuation in the global tech sector remains well beyond what we’re willing to pay. Second, many of the global tech businesses that have sold off have unproven business models. Third, we continue to find the opportunity set outside of tech, most notably in oil and gas E&P, more attractive. That said, we have been looking and have a list of several high-quality, smaller global tech businesses that we would like to own if their shares derate further.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler Brad Virbitsky
[1] Please note that estimated performance has yet to be audited and is subject to revision. Performance figures constitute confidential information and must not be disclosed to third parties. An investor’s performance may differ based on timing of contributions, withdrawals and participation in new issues.
Unless otherwise noted, all company-specific data derived from internal analysis, company presentations, Bloomberg, FactSet or independent sources. Values as of 3.31.23, unless otherwise noted.
This document is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy interests in any product and is being provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, tax or investment advice. An offering of interests will be made only by means of a confidential private offering memorandum and only to qualified investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.
An investment is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. There is no secondary market for the investor’s interests and none is expected to develop and there may be restrictions on transferring interests. The Investment Advisor has total trading authority. Performance results are net of fees and expenses and reflect the reinvestment of dividends, interest and other earnings.
Prior performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any investment in a fund involves the risk of loss. Performance can be volatile and an investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his or her investment.
The information presented herein is current only as of the particular dates specified for such information, and is subject to change in future periods without notice.









