Equinox Partners Precious Metals, L.P. - Q2 2019 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
Still not much enthusiasm
While gold mining stocks are up sharply this year, there is no groundswell of enthusiasm for the sector. This broad lack of enthusiasm is clearly reflected in the year-to-date capital out flows from the GDX and GDXJ. During the 2016 surge in gold mining shares, these two indices attracted $5.7b of inflows. By contrast, this year through July 23, the two indices have experienced $3.2b in outflows. And, even since gold began to climb in June, the indices have experienced nearly consistent net outflows.[1] Active managers of gold mining portfolios also experienced outflows in the first half of 2019. The mutual funds of Oppenheimer, Tocqueville, and Franklin-Templeton collectively distributed $89m more to their investors than they took in the first half of 2019.[2]
With such modest levels of investor interest in the sector, gold mining companies have appreciated roughly in proportion to their NAVs. Accordingly, P/NAV for the gold mining companies has remained broadly flat for the year. There are several notable exceptions to this trend. Detour’s shares, for instance, are up 73% for the year to date, while the company’s NAV is up 27% over the same period. But, as the graph of RBC’s coverage universe makes clear, P/NAV multiples for the industry remain roughly flat for the year to date.
A further indication that the bull market in gold and silver miners is just beginning is the hesitance of the sell-side to adopt a higher price deck for gold. As of July 22, the sell-side brokers we use are still modeling an average gold price of less than $1300, 9% below today’s spot gold price. Specifically, BMO is using $1331, RBC is using $1300, and Cormark is using $1250. Needless to say, the subdued nature of this rally gives us confidence that the move upwards in the price of gold mining shares is still early as we break out of a very deep eight-year bear market.
gold/silver ratio
The gold silver ratio peaked at 93x on July 5 and subsequently reversed to 86x. The peaking of this ratio is an important early indicator of investor interest returning to precious metals. The physical gold market is approximately 200x larger than the silver market. Accordingly, as capital begins flowing into precious metals, silver tends to outperform. The math of a $15b investment is instructive. Such an investment would account for 0.1% of the world’s gold but more than 20% of all the silver available for delivery.
We expect that a continued upward move in silver prices will be magnified by our silver mining investments. Pan American Silver, MAG Silver, Bear Creek Mining, and SilverCrest Metals collectively account for the vast majority of our silver exposure. We’ve enclosed a brief description of each:
Pan American is a diversified precious metals producer which derives half of its current year revenue from silver. The company’s seasoned management team and scale enabled them to acquire quality assets throughout the bear market. Just last year, Pan American was able to acquire Tahoe Resources at a particularly attractive valuation. When Tahoe’s Escobal mine resumes production, over 50% of Pan American’s revenues will come from silver.
MAG Silver’s Juanicipio JV is currently under construction and will begin production next year. Given Fresnillo’s strong track record in the region, we are expecting a smooth, on time ramp-up. The JV mine will begin with production of 4,000 tonnes per day and increase to 8,000 tonnes per day within two years. At 8,000 tonnes per day the JV will generate more than $130m USD to MAG’s account every year.
Bear Creek Mining controls a 446m ounce silver project in Peru. The economics of the project are outstanding at $20 silver. Once the market begins to discount $20+ silver, Bear Creek should be able to finance the project’s substantial upfront costs while not excessively diluting the current shareholders. With more than $30m in cash on its balance sheet and a monthly cash burn rate of a little over $1m, the company is well-positioned to remain patient for the right silver price.
SilverCrest Metals is an exploration company focused on advancing the Las Chispas project in Sonora, Mexico. Over the last 3.5 years, the company has hit a series of impressive milestones. As of May, the company has a resource of over 100m ounces and an NPV of over $400m USD. The company’s feasibility study is expected in late 2020. With strong FCF margins, future exploration upside, and a high-quality management team, we believe SilverCrest can grow its silver production for years to come.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler










