Equinox Partners Precious Metals, L.P. - Q2 2018 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
Mining Company Engagement
Our experience investing in mining companies has taught us that partnering with better-managed, better-governed mining companies is the key to performing well in the long run. As a general rule, this strategy entails identifying better executives and board members and then letting them do their job. That said, our involvement in board construction at MAG Silver and Ferreycorp positions us to take a proactive approach with companies when the opportunity arises. The following letter highlights three recent instances in which we have been more active as shareholders.
orezone gold
One year ago, following the departure of the long-time CEO, Ron Little, we became concerned that the Orezone board might be tempted to sell the company at a low price and move on. Happily, our initial concern proved to be unfounded: Orezone’s new CEO, Patrick Downey, has laid out a clear way forward for the five million ounce project. An engineer by background, Patrick spearheaded a redesign that is economic at $1,200 gold. He also brought in a leading private equity firm, Resource Capital Funds, to help finance the project and lend credibility to his strategy.
Our intensive conversations with Patrick over the past year led to a recent, formal offer to join the board. With the company entering a critical phase of financing and construction, this was a good opportunity to ensure that the interests of existing investors were well represented. Accordingly, we accepted and Marco LoCascio joined the Orezone board in June, after serving for an extended period as a non-voting observer. As a board member, we have continued to advocate for a conservative, simple capital structure that preserves the per share ownership of Orezone’s existing equity holders.
Bear Creek Mining
Bear Creek owns a large, undeveloped silver deposit in Peru. The asset is now construction ready, but the company is unable to finance the project with silver prices below $16. For the time being, Bear Creek must balance the local community’s eagerness to proceed with the investors’ desire to wait for a more opportune moment to finance the project. Given this delicate balance, we have been in regular conversation with the company.
Like the other sizable investors in Bear Creek, we are attracted to the company’s 200+ million ounces of silver and 4.5 billion total pounds of lead and zinc. At current prices, we estimate that the company’s Corani deposit holds over $5 billion of recoverable metals. Such a large resource requires a sizable capital expenditure to exploit economically. Bear Creek estimates that it will cost $600 million to develop its Corani asset—an impossible figure for a $150 million market cap company.
Rather than attempt to string the $600 million together through a combination of debt, streams, equity, and off-take agreements, we are encouraging the management to spend the money they currently have on hand to maintain their mining license and strong relationship with the local community. This strategy requires patience and diplomacy, but it is clearly in the best interest of the shareholders. We have shared our outlook with both the board and the CEO in person.
Dundee Precious MEtals
Dundee is our largest position because it is so undervalued. The company has a market cap of $400 million, and will generate cash flow of $150 million in 2019. The company has little debt and can buy back more than 20% of its stock over the next 18 months without taking on additional debt.
Dundee’s extraordinary low valuation reflects the market’s concern that the company will not allocate its free cash flow wisely. The company’s capital allocation decision is simple: The company can take advantage of its low stock price to reduce its share count, or it can press ahead with an acquisition. At this valuation, however, any new capital commitment will be grossly inferior to a share buyback. We’ve communicated that message repeatedly to the management. In particular, we’ve emphasized that Dundee needs to be sensitive to new projects given its history of capital intensive investments.
For more than a decade, Dundee was forced to invest in a smelter it acquired to process the ore from its Chelopech mine in Bulgaria. At the time, the company argued that these investments would generate good returns, but Dundee’s smelter business has only ever been breakeven. In addition to hurting the company’s returns, these investments damaged the company’s credibility as a capital allocator.
Given this history and the proximity of sizeable free cash flow, we initiated a dialogue with both the management and board about the best use of the company’s future free cash flow. Specifically, we have encouraged the company to adopt a policy of avoiding new projects until the market offers Dundee a much lower cost of capital. Our efforts resulted in a formal letter to the board detailing our analysis of the attractiveness of share buybacks relative to an acquisition. As several board members are large owners of stock, we are therefore optimistic that they will make a wise decision.
conclusion
We remain focused on ensuring that our companies are good stewards of their cash flows. In a handful of cases we’ve oriented our relationship with boards and executives around this particular goal.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler









