Equinox Partners, L.P. - Q2 2012 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO
Equinox Partners fell -16.2% in the quarter ended June 30, 2012. Following positive performance in July and August, the fund was up +8.4% for the year to date through August 31.[1]
Valuations
We estimate that our operating companies are trading at 13.3x 2012 and 10.8x 2013 look-through earnings and currently generate an 18.9% ROE. We estimate that our producing mining and E&P companies are trading at 6.3x 2012 and 5.3x 2013 look-through cash flow and currently generate a 14.0% ROE. [2] In future monthly fund summaries, we will report these valuation and return metrics. While imperfect, these figures provide our clients with a benchmark against which to judge the attractiveness of our portfolio over time.
Corporate Governance
Americans’ dim view of large corporations stems from a perception that large corporations relentlessly pursue profit. While there is a kernel of truth to this perception, the public fixation on the conflict between large corporations and society has obscured the much larger and more persistent conflict that exists between the owners of these large corporations and corporate insiders. Time and again, we’ve seen insiders without much stock ownership pursue strategies to make their corporations as large, prestigious and personally remunerative as possible even when such a strategy is in conflict with the best interest of shareholders.
Having spent much of the last decade investing overseas, most of our investments have been mercifully free of this agency issue, i.e., the divergent interest between the owners of a business and corporate insiders. The agency issue is less prevalent in emerging markets where the founding shareholder is often still in control. While that controlling entrepreneur might very well put his own interests above those of other shareholders, he is able, if not always willing, to hold both himself and his professional management accountable.
This ability of owners to hold management to account does not, however, hold true for our substantial investments in Canadian-domiciled mining companies. In fact, as is now fully reflected in their stock prices, Canadian mining companies have become a worst-case example of unaccountable agents. The tight-knit community of directors which manages these companies has very successfully kept shareholders’ influence at arm’s length. In their effort to insulate the Canadian mining industry from the oversight of owners, Canadian mining company insiders have been aided by several factors:
· With little history of shareholder activism, Canadian shareholders are not accustomed to proxy contests.
· Capital-intensive mining companies have not historically generated the free cash flow necessary to attract activist investors.
· Highly volatile and highly valued free cash flow have protected the mining industry from debt-financed buyouts.
· Mining is a very management-intensive business and corporate results will likely suffer when management is distracted by a prolonged contest for control.
Happily, the combination of low stock prices, high gold prices and unrepentant insiders is finally starting to bring some change to the board rooms of Canadian mining companies. Over this past summer alone, shareholders have taken on entrenched management at several junior mining companies. While shareholders won’t carry the day in every instance, the success of larger shareholders in some situations has already put managements on notice that they need to do what is best for the companies and not pursue self-serving agendas.
As long-standing and substantial shareholders in Canadian mining companies, we elected to join a group of other investors in an entity named “Mining Investors for Shareholder Value” to make changes in the board of MAG Silver. MAG Silver offered a particularly attractive opportunity because of the company’s repeated decision to dilute shareholders’ ownership of the Juancipio JV—one of the highest grade silver mines ever discovered—in order to finance exploration projects with unproven economics.
As shareholders in MAG Silver for over four years, we are not looking for a sale and quick exit. In fact, we strongly believe that a sale of MAG’s principal asset should be postponed until greater clarity about its free cash flow characteristics can be made evident to the market. Instead, we want the board to better preserve the integrity of the cash flows from the Juancipio JV, a cash flow stream that, with the proper stewardship, is worth multiples of the current stock price.
As a consequence of our collective efforts, MAG Silver agreed to nominate two new directors, Rick Clark and Peter Barnes. We are confident that Rick and Peter will bring the changes needed to MAG Silver. Rick Clark built Red Back Mining and sold it to Kinross for $7.2 billion in 2010. Moreover, as a long-time employee of the Lundin Group, Rick understands the importance of working for shareholders, not just management. Peter Barnes, with his background as founding CEO of Silver Wheaton, is perfectly positioned to appreciate the stream of cash flow to come from the Juancipio JV—a cash flow stream that has similar economics to the silver streams upon which he built Silver Wheaton.
As long-term investors we invariably engage in substantive dialogue with the managements of the companies in which we are invested. Moreover, as investors who intentionally seek out the very best managements, we typically are in strategic accord with them. MAG Silver, however, presented an attractive opportunity for us to work with other shareholders to achieve a negotiated settlement with MAG Silver’s board of directors. During the past two years in which we’ve been in negotiation with management, we sensed that an openness in principle to our analysis was being overshadowed by an unhealthy inertia on the board. Recognizing that only a modest change was necessary to refocus the company on shareholder value, we undertook this unique opportunity to strengthen the board of one of our larger holdings.
Like the other gold and silver companies we own, MAG Silver continues to trade at a sizable discount to its intrinsic value. These persistent low valuations are evidence of the deep skepticism the industry continues to elicit from experienced investors. Despite this skepticism, during the last 12 years—a period of time in which we have had an outsized exposure to precious metals miners—the industry benchmark has compounded at over 23% a year. Moreover, with valuations low, easy money a near certainty, and corporate governance reform a growing possibility, our gold and silver mining companies are becoming increasingly attractive.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler
Daniel Gittes
William W. Strong
END NOTES
[1] Returns stated for Equinox Partners, L.P. Returns will differ for Equinox Fund International, Ltd.
[2] Valuations as of September 18, 2012 using current prices and estimated earnings and cash flow per holding. The look-through earnings/cash flow of the specified holdings are calculated on a bottom up basis by multiplying the earnings/cash flow per share in USD of each holding with the number of shares the fund owns. Mining and E&P cash flows are pre-capital expenditures.









