Equinox Partners, L.P. - Q3 2013 Letter
Dear Partners and Friends,
PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO
Equinox Partners was up +5.1% in the third quarter and down -9.4% for the year to date as of November 30.
This year our mining companies have weighed heavily on performance, costing Equinox -13.5% of partners’ capital as of November 30. These losses have been partially offset by our positive performance in the “rest of the world” which contributed +5.3% to partners’ capital.[1]
equinox's new transparency policy
With few exceptions, we have not disclosed our holdings in the past. We had no interest in sharing our investment ideas with our competitors since the inefficient pricing of our businesses is central to our long-term success. That being said, our competition already has access to a number of our holdings due to our regulatory filings. More to the point, we’ve concluded that our investors would gain a greater insight into our investment process through the regular disclosure of company-specific examples. Therefore, we will publish our year-end, top-five long positions on an annual basis beginning early next year. We’ll start the process with our largest holding, Aramex.
Aramex
Aramex’s business is similar to that of FedEx or UPS. The company dominates the domestic express business in most Middle Eastern countries and competes primarily with DHL in the international segment. It also has freight forwarding and logistics businesses. The majority of Aramex’s revenue comes from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. If you’ve ever sent a package to the UAE, it was likely delivered by an Aramex courier. We’ve been investors in the company since mid 2010. With its high return on equity of over 25% and its low forward PE multiple of just 12x, Aramex is emblematic of the high-quality, undervalued operating businesses that we seek to own in Equinox.[2] The company also has excellent growth prospects and an honest and capable management team. Simply put, Aramex combines quality and value in a way that we rarely see in our investment universe.
Happily, we don’t worry about Aramex’s high returns attracting new competitors. The company’s reputable brand combined with the “network effect” inherent in its industry form a particularly durable barrier to entry. Aramex further differentiates itself through its ability to operate efficiently in the Middle East, an entrepreneurial culture, and variable cost structure.
Aramex’s strengths are a reflection of its history as well as the vision and management of Fadi Ghandour, a Jordanian who founded the company in 1982.[3] Fadi followed the creation of Federal Express while he was studying in the United States. He later returned home to Jordan with the idea of creating a delivery company of his own. Aramex began as a humble Middle Eastern wholesaler, focused solely on last-mile delivery for global companies like FedEx that didn’t want to operate in the Middle East. At the time, DHL was the only sizeable regional competitor, and for many years, DHL focused mostly on multinational customers. As Aramex’s business grew, Aramex began working with customers directly and serving the local businesses that DHL hadn’t targeted.
With their robust delivery network and reputable brand, Aramex now competes for all customer types. The company’s strong share of several markets constitutes a meaningful competitive advantage as the same basic cost structure is required to deliver one package or a thousand packages. This dynamic is best characterized as a classic “network effect.” The company’s well-known brand is also an essential component of its continued success as shipments are often time-sensitive, high-priority items.
While the Middle East’s various geopolitical and cultural issues create an additional barrier to entry for outsiders, Aramex is a local company with local personnel. So the region’s issues are opportunities for it, not barriers to entry. Aramex’s entrepreneurial culture and its flexible business model are further advantages. Local Aramex managers have a great deal of autonomy and a strong incentive to best serve their customers. As opposed to most of its global competitors, Aramex has a variable cost structure. For instance, it doesn’t own planes but instead contracts “belly” space from the airlines. The variable cost structure allows the company’s margins to expand when capacity usage is weak. It also allows Aramex to be loyal to its customers, not to its assets or infrastructure.
When investing in the Middle East, it is easy to focus on the negatives of the region and harder still to see the positives. But the positives of the region should not be overlooked. Positioned between Asia and Europe as well as between Asia and Africa, a lot of trade destined for other places flows through the region and thus through Aramex. Moreover, internet access and, consequently, e-commerce are just now taking off in this region of the world. As this happens, Aramex will be delivering more and more online purchases to people’s homes.
In discussing Aramex, it would be difficult to overemphasize the talent of the company’s management team. They are focused not only on preserving the company’s entrepreneurial culture and taking advantage of its growth opportunities, but also on thoughtfully allocating capital. Management carefully weighs the tradeoffs between reinvesting in the business, making acquisitions, and returning capital to shareholders. We have been very pleased with their stewardship, and with the exception of Aramex’s own management, Equinox is the largest owner of the company’s shares.
Sincerely,
Andrew Ewert
Sean Fieler
Daniel Gittes
William W. Strong
END NOTES
[1] Returns stated for Equinox Partners, L.P. Returns will differ for Equinox Fund International, Ltd. Sector contribution is presented on a gross basis using relevant period P&L and average capital. “Rest of world” is the UK, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Georgia, Sweden, and the U.S.
[2] Metrics derived from internal proprietary company model and based on 2014 estimated earnings; ROE is adjusted by removing goodwill from equity.
[3] Q4 2012 company presentation.









